DUSHANBE, July 15, 2016, Asia-Plus — Tajikistan’s Finance Ministry expects the national currency, the somoni, to continue to slide against the dollar over the coming three years.
Reuters
reported on July 14 that Finance Ministry forecasts, drawn up as part of budget planning, see the somoni slipping from its current 7.9 to the dollar to 9.6 in 2017, 10.4 in 2018 and 11.2 in 2019. Inflation for those years is seen at 7 percent.
“This is just a forecast. There will be no devaluation. The rate depends on many factor, mainly external ones, and indicators of the gold and currency reserves,” a source at the National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) told
Reuters
.
“We believe that there will not be so much external pressure as in 2014, since we see a certain degree of progress in the Russian economy, despite the negative prognosis,” the NBT source told Reuters.
The source noted that the forecast was just the preliminary one and it could be adjusted during elaboration of the law on the national budget for 2017.
The draft law on the national budget for 2017 is expected to submitted for consideration to the government on September 20.
Meanwhile,
EurasiaNet.org
reported on July 14 that Tajikistan’s arsenal for stabilizing the currency is severely depleted. Foreign reserves are dwindling at dangerously low levels. And the banking system is teetering on the verge of a total meltdown.
Accountholders at the main two banks — Tojik Sodirot Bonk and Agroinvestbonk — have for months had trouble getting their hands on their savings or withdrawing salaries paid through the lenders.
Customers at Eskhata Bank and Imon International have reported some instances of reduced liquidity.
Finance Minister Abdusalom Qurboniyon met on July 13 with the recently appointed country representative for the International Monetary Fund, from which Tajikistan remains hopeful of receiving bailout assistance.
Any loan from the IMF is going to require some pretty cast-iron guarantees this time around, however, since the fund has had its fingers burnt before, according to
EurasiaNet.org
. This reportedly means that nothing soon should be expected before some help arrives, during which time Tajikistan will have to hang by its fingernails over an alarming economic precipice.
