Experts say the Western sanctions imposed on Russia over Ukraine crisis will put economic strain on many smaller countries with close economic ties to the Russian Federation.
One of those countries is Tajikistan.
Recall, the international financial ratings agency Moody's put Tajikistan — along with Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Moldova — on a list of countries most likely to be affected by sanctions on Russia.
A study by Moody’s in particular, says that if sanctions are imposed, they will affect the CIS countries, which have close economic, financial, and energy ties with Russia through various channels.
As far as Tajikistan is concerned, one of the first economic measures in the country that would be hit due to sanctions against Moscow are the many millions of dollars in remittances from the estimated more than 1 million Tajik labor migrants working in the Russian Federation.
Thus, the Central Bank of Russia says 1.289 billion U.S. dollars (USD) were sent by physical entities through money transfer system to Tajikistan from Russia over the first nine months of last year, which was 5.6 percent more than in the same period 2020 (in January-September 2020, physical entities reportedly remitted 1.221 billion USD from Russia to Tajikistan).
Parviz Mullojonov, a researcher at Sweden's Uppsala University, told Radio Liberty that if the Russian ruble devalues significantly, “the currencies in the countries in [Central Asia] will also depreciate.”
Mullojonov said as soon as the Russian economy begins to suffer, it will affect all of the Central Asian countries and that the consequences will be "severe."
He added that while Russia is embroiled in the situation in Ukraine and dealing with the resulting sanctions, Central Asian countries may gravitate closer to China.
Meanwhile, Kyrgyz experts consider that there is concern that a massive military attack by the estimated 190,000 Russian forces amassed in and near Ukraine would also directly hurt the Kyrgyz economy.
Kyrgyz politician Ravshan Jeenbekov told RFE/RL that an armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine would have severe economic consequences for Kyrgyzstan, which is a member of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union with Armenia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.
"First of all, oil and gas prices will rise," he said. "We all know that Russia is very important in [the energy] market. Secondly, Russia is one of the largest exporters of wheat in the world."
Kyrgyzstan gets virtually all of its fuel and gas from Russia, importing more than 1 million tons of Russian fuel a year, with Russian gas giant Gazprom supplying the country with its natural gas.
A disruptive military conflict between Russia and Ukraine could also affect Kyrgyzstan's economic ties with Ukraine, which has an annual trade turnover of some US$100 million with Kyrgyzstan, according to RFE/RL.
Kyrgyzstan reportedly purchases a lot of medicine, flour, meat, and confectionery products from Ukraine, supplies of which could all be affected by a military conflict.
