In 2025, the most migrant-dependent sectors in Russia will be manufacturing, agriculture, and construction, Andrey Kladov, an expert on migration and employment also the director of the "Migrant Service" platform, told Gazeta.Ru in an interview.
"In the construction sector, the shortage of qualified specialists has been steadily worsening throughout 2024. It is difficult to predict an improvement in 2025; the deficit is likely to continue growing. Currently, labor shortages are evident across nearly all positions in construction—from skilled specialists to window installers, monolithic workers, and plasterers," he noted.
A significant labor shortage in the manufacturing sector reportedly began to emerge in early 2024. At that time, 85% of Russian companies in this field faced staff shortages.
The expert predicts that this negative trend will intensify next year, with 95% of domestic enterprises expected to experience labor deficits.
"The most severe staffing issues in recent years have been observed in agriculture. Back in 2022, the labor shortage in this sector was estimated at approximately 240,000 people. Next year, the deficit of qualified specialists in agriculture could reach around 300,000 people," Kladov emphasized.
Wage growth in labor-shortage sectors
According to analysts from "Migrant Service," wages in sectors experiencing labor shortages are expected to continue rising. However, the pace of this growth will depend on the intensity and duration of the outflow of foreign workers.
Experts believe that wage increases will be driven not only by the reduction in migrant labor but also by several other factors: rising inflation will necessitate wage adjustments; small and medium-sized businesses will face greater competition for workers, prompting them to raise salaries to attract new employees (this will account for both inflationary pressures and the need to index wages).
"To attract new employees, companies will have to increase salaries, considering inflation processes and the necessity of wage indexation," the expert said.
Expected wage increases
Specialists at "Migrant Service" estimate that if a significant outflow of migrants occurs, salaries in the following categories could increase:
- Couriers: 155,000 rubles per month;
- Factory workers: 147,000 rubles per month;
- Drivers: 136,000 rubles per month;
- Construction workers: 130,000 rubles per month.
