Tajikistan’s economy grew by 8.4% in 2025, driven by strong industrial development and rising domestic demand, according to a macroeconomic review by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB).
EDB analysts report that industrial output increased by 22.1% over the past year. The largest contribution came from the mining sector, where production rose by 36.2%. Significant growth was also recorded in manufacturing, up 10.5%, and in the energy sector, which expanded by 13%.
Domestic demand played a key role in supporting economic growth, the bank notes. This is reflected in a 14.4% increase in retail sales and a 23% rise in investment.
The growth in domestic demand is directly linked to rising household incomes. Real wages increased by 15.6% year-on-year in January–November 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.
The review also highlights a substantial increase in remittances sent by labor migrants. In U.S. dollar terms, remittance inflows rose by 50% in January–September 2025.
According to EDB forecasts, Tajikistan’s strong GDP growth momentum is expected to continue in 2026, with economic growth projected at 8.1%.
Following a slowdown during the pandemic in 2020, when economic growth fell to 4.5%, Tajikistan has recorded consistently high growth rates over the past five years, according to official data.
Economic growth of Tajikistan (2020–2025)
|
Year |
Economic Growth (%) |
|---|---|
|
2020 |
4.5 |
|
2021 |
9.2 |
|
2022 |
8.0 |
|
2023 |
8.3 |
|
2024 |
8.4 |
|
2025 |
8.4 |
Source: Agency for Statistics under the President of Tajikistan
Remittances and their role in the economy
Tajikistan remains one of the world’s most remittance-dependent countries. According to the World Bank, remittance inflows to the country totaled USD 5.8 billion in 2024.
These transfers accounted for 45.4% of Tajikistan’s GDP last year — the highest ratio globally. Data for 2025 have not yet been released.
Remittances play a crucial role in the country’s economy by:
· supporting domestic demand through household consumption;
· financing a significant share of the trade balance deficit via foreign currency inflows;
· generating tax revenues through remittance service providers and sellers of goods and services.
At the same time, since 2013, the Tajik authorities have declined to provide the media with official data on individual remittances, despite the fact that such information is not classified under national legislation.
