DUSHANBE, May 23, Asia-Plus — Known Tajik economic says the real inflation rate is much higher than official figures.
“I assume that the real inflation rate is much higher than official data shows,” Dr. Hojimuhammad Umarov, researcher with the Institute for Economic Studies at the Ministry of Economic development and Trade (MoEDT), said in an interview with Asia-Plus.
According to figures provided by the State Committee for Statistics, inflation for January-April stood at 4.6 percent, while Dr. Umarov considers that inflation for the report period stood at least at 9 or 10 percent.
He added that the key external factors contributing to increase in the inflation rate in the country remains rising world prices of grains, fuel and foodstuffs. “Most acutely Tajik society reacts to increase in prices of basic food products. Flour price hike leads to increase in prices of other basic food products hike price,” said the expert, “Although external factors considerably affect the inflation rate, but it cannot be ruled out that any skilled speculator is manipulating the foodstuff market; the country’s currency market has been quite often like this.”
According to him, the domestic factors remain the same: structural deformity; low efficiency of production facilities; setback in production; shortage of jobs; and some other factors negatively impacting development of the country’s economy.
In the meantime, Olimjon Bobokalonov, the deputy director of the Center for Strategic Studies, If there are no any circumstances of irresistible force, like the previous year inflation will have stood at 18%-20% by the end of this year. “But any sudden spike in world prices of grains or fuels may lead to even higher inflation rate,” Bobokalonov said.
