Russia-Ukraine crisis make economic hit on Tajikistan

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The Russian currency sinks to a record low against the dollar after Western countries impose new sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. The Russian ruble sank 30% after new Western sanctions.

The weaker ruble means less money for millions of households who depend on remittances from Russia, the main destination for Tajikistan’s migrant workers.

According to Russian government figures, some 2.4 Tajik citizens entered Russia last year; 1.6 million of them, or about one-quarter of Tajikistan's working-age population, stated “work” as their reason for entering Russia.

103,681 Tajik nationals obtained Russian citizenship last year.  It’s a significant rise from five years ago, when about 30,000 Tajiks received Russian passports.  Tajikistan allows dual Tajik-Russian citizenship.

The remittances sent from Russia to Tajikistan through official channels reportedly accounted for 30 percent of Tajikistan's gross domestic product (GDP).  

There is not yet any serious panic in Tajikistan about the situation in Russia and its potential impact on the migrants. 

However, people who get seasonal work say they worry there will be less jobs in Russia.  Many Tajik labor migrants want to work in the Russia Federation only for some month and return home during the cold season. 

An average market exchange rate of the Russian ruble (RR) in Tajikistan against the Tajik national currency, the somonis, fell more than 28 percent over the last four days of February — from 1:0128 on February 24 to 1:0.1 on February 28.   

The lowest market exchange rate was reported in one of brunches of Amonatbonk (Tajikistan’s savings bank) in Dushanbe – 1:0.095 and the highest market exchange rate was reported in Spitamen Bank – 1:01025. 

The current collapse of the Russian ruble and the Russian stock market downturn are explained by the increased geopolitical tensions present for Ukraine.  Geopolitical tensions worsened last week, after Russian President Vladimir Putin made the decision to hold a special military operation in Ukraine in response to the address of leaders of Donbass republics.

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