Up to a third of migrant workers may leave Russia due to the weakening of the ruble against the dollar and euro and, as a result, a decrease in income. This forecast was given by the head of the Uzbek diaspora in Moscow, Bahrom Ismailov, reports “Vedomosti”.
According to a survey conducted among representatives of the Uzbek diaspora, 50% of respondents are thinking about leaving Russia due to the growth of the dollar, 25% of respondents do not plan to do this and 25% have not yet decided. A total of 22,800 people took part in the online survey.
The ruble has been weakening against major foreign currencies since the end of June. During trading on the Moscow Exchange on August 14, dollar for the first time since the end of March 2022 exceeded 101 rubles, euro – 110 rubles. According to the Central Bank, since the beginning of the year, the real effective exchange rate of the ruble has decreased by 26.4%. In the first seven months of this year, the ruble's decline against the dollar was 27.5%, and against the euro – 29.9%. After the announcement by the Bank of Russia of an extraordinary meeting of the Board of Directors on the issue of the key rate on August 15, the ruble began to strengthen.
According to Ismailov, due to the dollar growth, the earnings of foreign citizens in Russia are declining and becoming more and more comparable with incomes at home. He assumes that the outflow of migrant workers is primarily likely in the least paid areas – retail, catering, cleaning, courier delivery, agriculture, etc.
Representatives of HeadHunter and SuperJob job search services found it difficult to estimate the average salary in vacancies focused primarily on migrants. In 2021, the average salary of migrant workers in Russia was 47,100 rubles, according to a study by experts from Moscow State University and the public organization "Federation of Migrants of Russia" (liquidated by the decision of the Supreme Court of August 18, 2022). The highest salaries were then recorded for migrants engaged in construction and repair – 54,000 rubles, the lowest – for those who are engaged in agriculture – 37,000 rubles.
In addition, migrants lose part of their earnings by sending money to their homeland, as the conversion of funds takes place at the local exchange rate of the recipient country, Chairman of the Union of Tajikistanis of Russia Abdullo Davlatov told “Vedomosti”.
However, even without the weakening of the ruble, the trend of reorientation of labor migrants to other directions is really increasing, Davlatov says. Citizens of Tajikistan now have 15 countries to choose from to earn money. If earlier Russia and Kazakhstan were the most popular, now, for example, they go to South Korea for construction, and Tajiks spend the agricultural season in the UK.
However, not everyone has the opportunity to leave Russia, so there will be no significant outflow in the near future. An expert on migration issues, Vadim Kozhenov, in an interview with “Vedomosti”, said that not all migrants go to Russia only to earn money.
"Many people come to live a different life in general," Kozhenov said.
In his opinion, due to the weakening of the ruble, there may indeed be an outflow of foreign labor, but it will not exceed the share of 10% of the current number of migrants working in Russia. The intensity of the outflow, according to Dovlatov, will depend on how Russian employers motivate foreign employees. He believes that, first of all, there may be a shortage of labor in the construction sector, since housing prices may rise while maintaining the level of wages, while in agriculture and catering, outflow is unlikely, since in these industries "you can at least feed yourself."
