Tajik Prime Minister Qohir Rasoulzoda has promised that by August 2027, the country will achieve energy independence. In an interview in August 2025, he assured that the president's directives on this matter would be completed on time and to a high standard. We took a closer look at what might lie behind this ambitious statement.
1. Roghun: solving the electricity deficit
In December 2024, President Emomali Rahmon announced that starting in May 2027, the Rogun Hydropower Plant (HPP) and the cascade of hydropower plants on the Vakhsh River would completely eliminate the country’s electricity deficit. Construction of Roghun is already more than halfway completed, with the first two turbines generating 9.1 billion kWh. By 2029, all six turbines are expected to generate up to 17 billion kWh annually, covering 80-85% of the country's energy needs. Dam construction and reservoir filling are proceeding according to plan, instilling confidence in the project’s success.
2. Modernizing older hydropower plants
The ongoing modernization of the Nurek, Qairoqqum, and Sarband HPPs will also play a crucial role in Tajikistan’s energy independence. In 2025, the country’s energy capacity will increase by 180 MW through the upgrade of existing equipment. After the full renovation of Nurek, the country’s largest HPP, its capacity will increase to 3,375 MW. By 2027, the combined upgrades and new projects will add nearly 430 MW, bolstering the stability of the energy supply, especially in the winter months.
3. Solar power: a step toward a green economy
Tajikistan is making significant strides in solar energy, which is set to play an important part in the country’s transition to a green economy. This year, the construction of a 200 MW solar power plant will begin in the Sughd province. PVknowhow.com reported in August this year that Tajikistan has signed a landmark agreement with ACWA Power to construct a 200 MW solar power plant in the Khatlon province, signifying a pivotal moment in the country’s renewable energy journey. By 2027, two large solar plants with a total capacity of 400 MW will be launched, increasing the resilience of the power grid. By 2030, the total capacity of renewable energy projects (solar and wind) will reach 1,500 MW, reducing dependence on hydroelectric power.
4. Digitalization: tackling power losses
One of the strategic goals for Tajikistan is to reduce power losses, which will significantly improve the efficiency of the energy system. By 2025, the country will complete the installation of smart meters, helping to prevent unauthorized consumption and improve billing transparency. In regions where smart grids have already been introduced, losses have been reduced to 6-8%, aligning with the standards of developed energy systems.
5. Energy exports: new economic opportunities
Tajikistan is actively integrating into regional energy networks, which will not only improve domestic energy supply but also open up opportunities for electricity exports. Since 2024, the country has rejoined the Central Asian Unified Energy System (CAUES), improving grid stability. The CASA-1000 project, which will allow for the export of excess electricity from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Afghanistan and Pakistan, is set to be completed by 2026. This will provide Tajikistan with additional revenue and strengthen its role in the regional energy market.
In conclusion, the realization of these five strategic projects could lead to Tajikistan achieving energy independence by August 2027.
