Inflation in Tajikistan for the first 11 months of 2025 stood at 2.9%, according to the country’s Agency for Statistics. This marks another year of low inflation, following similar trends over the past several years.
Inflation structure and key trends
The inflation structure shows mixed trends across different sectors:
· Prices of foodstuffs increased by 3.5%;
· Non-foodstuffs rose in cost by 1.4%;
· Prices and rates for services rendered to the population increased by 5.5%.
This marks the fourth consecutive year that official statistics report a record-low level of inflation. In 2022, prices and tariffs rose by only 4.2%, in 2023 by 3.8%, and by 3.4% for the first 11 months of 2024. The previous record-low inflation rate in Tajikistan’s history was 3.7% in 2013.
If retail prices and tariffs remain stable through December, the annual inflation rate for 2025 will not exceed 3.2%, setting a new personal record for the country. The average monthly inflation rate for the first 11 months of 2025 was about 0.3%.
Key factors behind the low inflation
Analysts from the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) note that Tajikistan’s price growth remains within the target range set by the National Bank, staying near the lower boundary of the target. “The main reasons for this are the balanced monetary and credit policy and the strengthening of the national currency by 15.5% since the beginning of 2025. We expect inflation to accelerate to 4.5% year-on-year by the end of 2026 due to strong domestic demand in the economy, while remaining within the target range,” the EDB’s micro-review highlights.
Skepticism among the population
Despite the positive official statistics, many residents continue to express skepticism about the accuracy of these numbers, noting that the actual rise in prices for goods and services they experience in their daily lives is much higher.
Previously, the National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) commented on this skepticism, explaining to Asia-Plus that price increases for specific goods do not reflect the overall situation. The regulator emphasized that the consumer basket includes a wide range of goods and services, and therefore, evaluating inflation solely based on the price increase of a few items is incorrect.
A similar position was expressed by the Statistics Agency, which stated that official inflation calculations are based on an expanded basket of goods and services, significantly differing from the shopping list of an individual consumer.
Outlook for inflation
While inflation in 2025 remains low, analysts suggest that rising internal demand may drive inflation higher in the coming years. As the economy strengthens, it is expected that inflation could reach 4.5% by the end of 2026, though it will remain within the central bank’s target range.
This continued low inflation in Tajikistan reflects effective fiscal and monetary policies, but the gap between official statistics and public perception remains a point of discussion for both economists and citizens.
