China’s investment expansion in Central Asia: what it means for the region

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Chinese Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in Central Asia continue to grow, steadily increasing their share in the region’s economies, according to a report by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) titled “China and the Eurasian Region: An Analysis of Investment Flows”, published on December 25.

The report highlights that China is strengthening its position in key economic sectors such as energy, infrastructure, and manufacturing through these investments. At the same time, these investments are contributing to the region’s economic growth, improving environmental conditions, and modernizing infrastructure.

The volume of accumulated Chinese FDI in Central Asia has risen from $19.6 billion in 2016 to $35.9 billion by mid-2025. Notably, 32% of these investments have been directed into Kazakhstan's economy, 30% into Uzbekistan’s, 27% into Turkmenistan’s, 6% into Tajikistan’s, and 5% into Kyrgyzstan’s.

 

Tajikistan

Chinese FDI in Tajikistan has grown from $1.4 billion to $2.2 billion over the past decade. Tajikistan now accounts for 6% of China’s total FDI portfolio in Central Asia. Most of China’s investments in Tajikistan are concentrated in the raw materials and manufacturing sectors.

The raw materials sector has received 45% of all investments ($978 million), with an annual growth rate of 5% over the past 10 years. The manufacturing sector accounts for 42% ($911 million), with an annual growth rate of 2.3%.

Currently, Chinese direct investments in Tajikistan are represented by an active industrial project and several promising initiatives in the renewable energy sector. The key ongoing project is the development of the "Talco Gold" gold mine in the Sughd province, with participation from Tibet Huayu Mining. The capital for this project is structured through a joint venture in which the Chinese investor holds a 50% stake. The total project budget is estimated at $136 million.

Between 2025 and 2028, Eging PV Technology plans to build a solar power station with a capacity of up to 1.5 GW. At the same time, China Datang Overseas is working on two projects: a 500 MW solar power plant in Sughd and a solar module manufacturing plant in the Khatlon province.

All of these projects are expected to be financed through the Chinese companies' own funds, with no clear direct budgetary support from the host country. Capital works are expected to begin in the second half of 2025 or 2026 after technical and economic studies and site approvals.

 

Kazakhstan

As of 2025, the total volume of Chinese FDI in Kazakhstan amounts to $11.4 billion. Chinese companies are actively investing in the manufacturing sector, energy, and infrastructure. One of the largest projects is Sinopec’s involvement in the "Silleno" gas chemical complex in the Atyrau region. New projects launched in 2024 include a metallurgical plant in Shymkent and wind farms in the Bukhara region.

 

Kyrgyzstan

Chinese FDI in Kyrgyzstan totals $2.1 billion, which constitutes 5.8% of the total Chinese investments in Central Asia. The majority of investments are directed toward the mining and manufacturing industries.

Among the major projects is the construction of a solar power plant and the Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, which began in 2024. China continues to develop infrastructure in the country, particularly in logistics and waste processing sectors.

 

Turkmenistan

Chinese FDI in Turkmenistan has increased from $5.6 billion to $9.5 billion by mid-2025. The primary growth came from energy projects between 2016 and 2021.

One of the main projects is the development of the "Bagtyyarlyk" gas field, with participation from China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). In recent years, Chinese investors have shifted their focus to the operation of existing projects.

 

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan has become the second-largest recipient of Chinese FDI in Central Asia. As of 2025, accumulated investments amount to $10.7 billion, or 30% of China’s total investment in the region.

The majority of investments have been directed towards the energy sector (51%), manufacturing (31%), and renewable energy. One of the largest projects is the construction of an olefin complex in the Bukhara region, with an investment of $3.3 billion. Wind farms and gas infrastructure projects are also under development.

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