DUSHANBE, April 29, 2011, Asia-Plus — Tajik independent economist Bahriddin Karimov considers that Tajikistan must give Russia something in exchange for fuel, otherwise Tajikistan’s economy will collapse and the population will face starvation.
“Russia’s ban on gasoline exports will lead to a collapse in our economy,” said Karimov. “It will be a shock.”
“Lack of fuel will lead to surge in prices of all products in the country and even temporary fuel deliveries from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan will not stop the fuel price surge in Tajikistan,” said the expert, “People will begin to buy almost anything, until prices rise even more, I am afraid.”
According to him, fuel stocks of Gazpromneft-Tajikistan may save Tajikistan for a while. “Gazpromneft-Tajikistan, which is subsidiary of Russia’s Gazrpom, could be aware of the coming situation and prepare for it,” said Karimov, “If it is really so, it is good, but I could be wrong.”
At the same time, he added that that the largest stocks, if they existed, would be enough for not more than two weeks.
In Karimov’s opinion, by its decision to ban gasoline exports Russia is going for breaking all existing contracts deliberately, because it runs no risk. “Since they are monopolists in this area we have to adapt to them,” said the expert. “Under this situation, Tajikistan must take urgent measures. We should consider alternative sources of fuel deliveries – Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Fuel deliveries from these countries will be economically unprofitable. I think prices for gasoline delivered these countries will rise some 20 percent, but we must apply to them.”
The emerging situation will lead to economic collapse as ground and air transport will not work. “It is very dangerous, because we are in transportation deadlock,” said the expert, “Moreover, Tajikistan will face food crisis; the remote areas will be affected most, and people in those areas will even starve, I am afraid. This economic shock may lead to social instability in the country.”
According to Karimov, along with seeking alternative sources Tajikistan should make an appeal to Russia, asking to provide oil products at least for activities of transportation enterprises and law enforcement agencies. Besides, it is necessary to introduce fuel rationing in the country.
The expert considers that Tajikistan must bargain with Russia and give it something in exchange for fuel.
In the meantime, Dow Jones Newswires reports Russia’s energy minister said yesterday that the country’s fuel shortage problem is under control, but a temporary ban on gasoline exports could be put in place. The situation with regard to gasoline and diesel fuel is under control,” the ministry said in a statement. The comment followed a meeting between acting Energy Minister Sergey Kudryashov, heads of Russian oil companies and officials from Russian regions to discuss a looming fuel shortage in some parts of the country.
Earlier Thursday, Kudryashov was quoted by parts of the Russian media as saying oil companies will halt exports of oil products in May.
“Such measures are only being discussed in relation to gasoline,” the ministry said.
The ministry said the current stocks of fuel are enough to last for up to three week, depending on the region.
