DUSHANBE, February 1, 2012, Asia-Plus — Global growth prospects dimmed and risks sharply escalated during the fourth quarter of 2011, as the euro area crisis entered a perilous new phase, press release issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on January 24 said.
Financial conditions have deteriorated, growth prospects have dimmed, and downside risks have escalated. Global output is projected to expand by 3¼ percent in 2012—a downward revision of about ¾ percentage point relative to the September 2011 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This is largely because the euro area economy is now expected to go into a mild recession in 2012 as a result of the rise in sovereign yields, the effects of bank deleveraging on the real economy, and the impact of additional fiscal consolidation. Growth in emerging and developing economies is also expected to slow because of the worsening external environment and a weakening of internal demand. The most immediate policy challenge is to restore confidence and put an end to the crisis in the euro area by supporting growth, while sustaining adjustment, containing deleveraging, and providing more liquidity and monetary accommodation. In other major advanced economies, the key policy requirements are to address medium-term fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems, while sustaining the recovery. In emerging and developing economies, near-term policy should focus on responding to moderating domestic growth and to slowing external demand from advanced economies.
Activity remained relatively robust throughout the third quarter, with global GDP expanding at an annualized rate of 3½ percent—only slightly worse than forecast in the September 2011 WEO. Growth in the advanced economies surprised on the upside, as consumers in the United States unexpectedly lowered their saving rates and business fixed investment stayed strong. The bounce back from the supply-chain disruptions caused by the March 2011 Japanese earthquake was also stronger than anticipated. Additionally, stabilizing oil prices helped support consumption. These developments, however, are not expected to sustain significant momentum going forward.
By contrast, growth in emerging and developing economies slowed more than forecast, possibly due to a greater-than-expected effect of macroeconomic policy tightening or weaker underlying growth.
