DUSHANBE, May 3, 2016, Asia-Plus — The World Bank survey
Listening to Tajikistan
(
L2TJK
), in particular notes that an average per capita real income fell across all subgroups between November and March (urban, rural, bottom 40 percent and top 60 percent of the population), resulting primarily from declining remittances, and reduced self-employment and agricultural income over the winter season. The decline reportedly began to level off in the last round of the survey, completed in March.
Since November 2015, average real per capita income fell by about 24 percent, but climbed slightly for the bottom 40 percent between January and March, the survey says.
According to
L2TJK
, the share of household heads currently working within the country continued to decline over the winter months, but began climbing again from January to March, reaching nearly 45 percent.
Average remittance income reportedly fell in real terms between November and January for those households receiving them, but picked up slightly since January. However, the share of households receiving remittances has continued an uninterrupted decline since November. This is partially seasonal, but has also contributed to the continued decline in the share of households that received any income over the ten days preceding the interview.
The World Bank notes that Tajikistan is particularly vulnerable to shocks. From the current economic downturn in the Russian Federation, to seasonal electricity, water, and heating shortages, the country reportedly faces substantial risks to livelihoods and wellbeing.
Some of these risks could potentially derail the extensive improvements seen for the poor and vulnerable over the past decade. Strong economic growth in Tajikistan has helped to lower the poverty rate from 37.4 percent in 2012 to 31.6 percent in the 1st quarter of 2015, but sustaining gains and ensuring further progress will be increasingly difficult in the current environment, according to the World Bank.
Rolled out by the World Bank Poverty team,
L2TJK
monitors the impact of emerging trends throughout the country at high frequency. The survey rapidly clarifies the severity of the economic downturn, the evolution of vulnerabilities, and household responses to risk and deprivation over time. The survey enables a focus on poorer and more vulnerable households, and generates evidence for targeted policy-making.
