The International Monetary Fund raised forecasts for economic growth in Tajikistan by the end of this year and in 2019 by 1 percentage point to 5%.
In 2018, analysts of the Fund predict a GDP growth of Tajikistan at the level of 5%. Growth at the same level is projected in 2019. This is stated in the updated World Economic Outlook report published on October 8 on the IMF website.
In the April report of the Foundation, the economy of the republic predicted a growth of 4%, both in 2018 and in 2019.
The highest growth in 2018 among the CIS countries in the IMF October report is predicted to Turkmenistan – 6.2%.
IMF predicts to Uzbekistan, as well as Tajikistan, a growth of 5%, Kazakhstan – 3.7%, Kyrgyzstan – 2.8%, Armenia – 6%, Belarus – 4%, Moldova – 3.8%, Ukraine – 3.5 %, Russia – 1.7%, Azerbaijan – 1.3%.
The government of the country expects economic growth at the level of 7% this year.
Last year, economists of the IMF predicted a 4.5% growth in Tajikistan, which was 2.5 percentage points less than the expectations of the republic’s government. At the end of 2017, the economy grew by 7.1%.
ADB predicted even higher
Earlier, in late September, the Asian Development Bank downgraded forecasts for economic growth in all Central Asian countries, except Tajikistan and Kazakhstan..
The expected growth of the economy of Tajikistan according to ADB forecasts remains unchanged – 6% this year and 6.5% next year.
The relatively high growth of Tajikistan’s GDP (compared to other Central Asian countries) is explained by ADB specialists in the updated Asian Development Outlook with a reviving Russian economy, which contributes to higher remittance. This, as a result, will lead to an increase in retail trade and services in Tajikistan..
Inflation in the country is projected at 6.5% in 2018 and 7% in 2019.
EDB forecasts even higher than government expectations
Prior to this, in early September, the Eurasian Development Bank predicted Tajikistan to maintain a high level of economic activity until the end of the year.
EDB analysts believe that investment remains the main key driver of economic growth in Tajikistan.
«The implementation of infrastructure projects sets the investment impulse to the economy, thereby maintaining consistently high GDP growth rates», – stated in the quarterly macroeconomic review "The EDB Countries: the course towards sustainable development".
Also, according to economists of the bank, the Tajik economy through foreign trade and remittances will be supported by "maintaining growth in the countries – trading partners" and "improving the price situation on the global cotton and aluminum markets".
According to the results of this year, EDB economists forecast Tajikistan's economic growth at 7.1%. This is 0.1% percentage points higher than the government’s expectations..
Ahead of all
The growth of the economy of Tajikistan last year was 7.1%, which was one of the highest rates on a global scale.
According to the World Bank, Tajikistan is among the nine countries in the world that reached the highest level of economic growth last year.
The highest GDP growth last year was recorded in two African countries: Ethiopia – 10.3% and Guinea – 8.2%.
The top ten countries with the most notable economic growth also hit Nepal (7.9%), Ghana (7.8%), Armenia (7.5%), Turkey and Bhutan (7.4% each), Bangladesh (7.3%), Tajikistan (7.1) and Djibouti (7.0%).
GDP growth in Turkmenistan in 2017 amounted to 6.5%, Uzbekistan – 5.3%, Kyrgyzstan – 4.4%, Kazakhstan – 4.0%, and Russia – 1.5%.
