The global job market will take longer to recover than previously thought, with unemployment set to remain above pre-COVID-19 levels until at least 2023 due to uncertainty about the pandemic's course and duration, says a report released by the International Labor Organization (ILO) on January 17.
The International Labor Organization (ILO) has downgraded its forecast for labor market recovery in 2022, projecting a deficit in hours worked globally equivalent to 52 million full-time jobs, relative to the fourth quarter of 2019. The previous full-year estimate in May 2021 projected a deficit of 26 million full-time equivalent jobs.
While this latest projection is an improvement on the situation in 2021, it remains almost two percent below the number of global hours worked pre-pandemic, according to the ILO World Employment and Social Outlook – Trends 2022 (WESO Trends).
Global unemployment is reportedly expected to remain above pre-COVID-19 levels until at least 2023. The 2022 level is estimated at 207 million, compared to 186 million in 2019. The ILO’s report also cautions that the overall impact on employment is significantly greater than represented in these figures because many people have left the labor force. In 2022, the global labor force participation rate is projected to remain 1.2 percentage points below that of 2019.
The downgrade in the 2022 forecast reflects, to some extent, the impact that recent variants of COVID-19, such as Delta and Omicron, are having on the world of work, as well as significant uncertainty regarding the future course of the pandemic.
The WESO Trends report warns of the stark differences in the impact the crisis is having across groups of workers and countries. These differences are deepening inequalities within and among countries and weakening the economic, financial and social fabric of almost every nation, regardless of development status. This damage is likely to require years to repair, with potential long-term consequences for labor force participation, household incomes and social and – possibly – political cohesion.
The WESO Trends includes comprehensive labor market projections for 2022 and 2023. It gives assessments of how labor market recovery has unfolded worldwide, reflecting different national approaches to pandemic recovery and analyzing the effects on different groups of workers and economic sectors.
The ILO report shows that, as in previous crises, temporary employment created a buffer against the shock of the pandemic for some. While many temporary jobs were terminated or not renewed, alternative ones were created, including for workers who had lost permanent jobs. On average, the incidence of temporary work did not change.
The WESO Trends also offers a summary of key policy recommendations aimed at creating a fully inclusive, human-centered recovery from the crisis at both national and international levels. These are based on the Global Call to Action for a Human-Centered Recovery from the COVID-19 Crisis that Is Inclusive, Sustainable and Resilient, that was adopted by the ILO’s 187 Member States in June 2021.
