Electricity generated from solar and wind sources continues to become significantly cheaper, while the cost of energy production at hydropower plants is rising. The sharp decrease in the price of batteries for energy storage is creating serious competition for the flexible capacities of hydropower stations.
This conclusion was reached by experts from the international environmental coalition Rivers without Boundaries, who cite new data on the development of renewable energy sources (RES). The coalition's press release was obtained by Asia-Plus.
The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) has published its annual report, "The Cost of Renewable Energy Generation in 2023." The report shows that the cost difference between solar generation and hydropower continues to widen globally.
In 2022, the cost of energy from new hydropower plants was 20% higher than that of solar power plants, and in 2023, it is already 30% more expensive. According to experts, this should play a decisive role when planning the construction of new energy facilities.
Environmentalists note that in 2023, the construction of hydropower capacity cost US$2,800 per kilowatt of installed capacity, which is 3.5 to 4 times more expensive than solar power plants, 2.5 times more expensive than onshore wind power plants, and about the same as offshore wind farms. Additionally, the average construction time for hydropower plants is 7 to 10 times longer than for solar power plants and 5 times longer than for wind turbines.
Thus, in the coming years, the only remaining comparative advantage of hydropower may be its ability to flexibly regulate energy generation throughout the day. However, even here, hydropower is facing serious competition. Experts note that there is currently an explosive growth in energy storage capacity, accompanied by radical cost reductions. For example, battery production has nearly tripled over the past year (from 36 to 96 gigawatt-hours), and the price has dropped from US$358 to US$273 per kilowatt-hour of battery capacity.
"A significant portion of batteries today is used in combination with solar power plants to compensate for the lack of energy during nighttime hours. For instance, Uzbekistan plans to commission 20 GW of solar and wind power plants by 2030, along with 4.2 GW of energy storage capacity," said Evgeny Simonov, the coordinator of the Rivers without Boundaries coalition.
"Central Asian countries should reconsider their energy system development plans in favor of such combinations of energy capacities that can provide the region with cheap and reliable energy in the shortest time, while minimizing environmental impact. And these plans certainly should not include new hydropower plants," notes Alexander Kolotov, regional director of the Rivers without Boundaries environmental coalition.
It is to be noted that the potential of solar energy in Tajikistan is reportedly quite high. The country is located between 36°40′ and 41°05′ north latitude. Meteorologists call this zone a “golden belt” of sunshine. According to the Agency of Hydrometeorology of Tajikistan (Hydromet), the duration of sunshine in the country is 2100-3166 hours per year, and the number of sunny days per year ranges from 260 to 300. This provides great opportunities for the use of solar power as an alternative. The estimated potential of solar energy in Tajikistan is about 25 billion kWh / year. This potential is not used, if not to take into account some of its use for water heating. In Tajikistan, the share of solar energy is less than one percent
Meanwhile, the potential for wind is relatively unknown, but some sources’ estimates of its energy production are promising, with the forecasted figure standing at 30 billion-100 billion kWh per year, effectively rivaling the production of some hydropower plants.
