Ensuring security with its own forces, without U.S. support, would cost European countries hundreds of billions of euros and require a radical restructuring of the armed forces along with a significant increase in their numbers, The Moscow Times’ Russian Service reported on February 26. However, this could help the European economy emerge from a prolonged period of slow growth.
Due to the radical shift in U.S. policy, which threatens to fracture nearly 80 years of the transatlantic alliance, Europeans have been forced to urgently think about a future where they must confront military threats from Russia without relying on American military power. The future Chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz, described strengthening Europe as his “absolute priority” in order to achieve “independence from the U.S.” He proposed the creation of a new European defense union instead of NATO, which would include nuclear cooperation with France and the United Kingdom. France, whose president Emmanuel Macron has long urged Europeans to seek autonomy from the U.S. in defense and security matters, is already considering deploying nuclear-armed aircraft in Germany. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer expressed readiness to send British soldiers to Ukraine to provide security guarantees after the war with Russia ends.
However, the scale of the changes that Europeans will have to deal with is enormous. Replacing U.S. arms supplies to Ukraine is not very difficult—this would require the EU to spend an additional 0.12% of GDP (a bigger challenge would be the potential disruption of cooperation with U.S. intelligence and the loss of certain types of American weaponry), as estimated by military expert Alexander Burilkov and economist Guntram Wolff from the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel. The situation changes when, after a peace agreement in Ukraine, Europe will have to face Russia, which will stop losing weapons on the battlefield and begin to build them up. To replace American troops and prevent Russian aggression against Europe, Burilkov and Wolff estimate that Europe will need 300,000 soldiers and an increase in defense spending of at least 250 billion euros per year.
Currently, 100,000 U.S. soldiers are stationed in Europe, with another 200,000 ready to quickly deploy in case of Russian aggression, according to NATO plans. These units are combat-ready and equipped with necessary equipment under unified command. To replace them, Europe would need at least 1,400 tanks, 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles, and 700 artillery pieces. "This is more combat power than the combined ground forces of France, Germany, Italy, and the UK currently possess," write Bruegel experts. The situation is further complicated by the lack of uniformity in European command and troops across different countries.
European governments have begun to analyze various ways of financing such expenses.
According to Bruegel's estimates, increasing European defense investments from the current 2% to 3.5% of GDP annually would cost about 250 billion euros. Starmer unveiled a plan on Tuesday to increase British defense spending from 2.3% to 2.5% by 2027. However, even reaching 3% would only be possible with the next parliament—meaning after 2029 (such is the goal set by the British Prime Minister).
"Rapidly building such military power requires extraordinary efforts, although experience shows that market economies can do this," Burilkov and Wolff believe.
Economic growth could begin with increased military purchases, as evidenced by periods after World War II and during Ronald Reagan's presidency. The desire to compensate for the reduction in American military presence could create a useful precedent for growing investments in other sectors of the European economy, notes The Wall Street Journal.
For instance, Germany's economy has not grown since the pre-COVID year of 2019 and has even contracted in the past two years. Now, Merz wants to quickly reach an agreement on increasing defense spending by 200 billion euros, and government purchases from arms manufacturers could give a boost to the stagnating industrial production.
European countries should also organize joint government procurement of military products, which would increase the efficiency of such spending, said Pierre Wunsch, Chairman of the National Bank of Belgium, in an interview with the WSJ.
