Aluminum prices hit a record high, rising to $3644 per ton. In Tajikistan, aluminum production in 2026 is forecasted to grow by 20%, and exports are expected to increase by 15%, opening new prospects for the country’s economy amid high metal costs.
In 2026, aluminum prices, according to data from the online platform TradingEconomics.com, exceeded $3,600 per ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME).
Aluminum prices have changed significantly over the past year. Until April 2025, prices fluctuated between $2400–2500 per ton, remaining stable with minor variations. From April to December 2025, the price began to rise, reaching $2600–2700 per ton, which may be linked to increased demand or seasonal fluctuations. However, since the beginning of 2026, there has been a sharp rise, and by mid-April, the price reached $3500–3600 per ton.
Reasons for the Increase in Aluminum Prices
Experts from TradingEconomics.com explain the rise in aluminum prices with the following factors: aluminum futures in the UK exceeded $3600 per ton, approaching a more than four-year high. This is due to the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Persian Gulf is a vital waterway through which about 9% of the world’s primary aluminum passes.
Additionally, the conflict has impacted production capacities, as major processing plants in the UAE and Bahrain were damaged due to attacks from Iran. Analysts warn that supply constraints may persist for several months, even if hostilities cease and Hormuz reopens. The restoration of damaged smelting and processing facilities could take a significant amount of time. Emirates Global Aluminium stated that full production recovery could take at least a year.
Prospects for Tajikistan
For Tajikistan, where the aluminum industry is an essential part of the economy, such market changes open new opportunities. Forecasts for 2026 indicate that aluminum production in the country will increase by 20%, reaching 131 thousand tons. This is due to the expansion of production capacities and the improvement of operations at the largest aluminum producer in Tajikistan — TALCO. The positive impact of favorable conditions on the global aluminum market also boosts results.
Furthermore, aluminum exports from Tajikistan in 2026 are projected to amount to 105 thousand tons, which is 15% more compared to 2025. In monetary terms, exports will equal $243 million, which also represents a 10.4% increase. This trend is confirmed by data from the Customs Service of Tajikistan, where aluminum continues to be one of the main export goods.
In the first quarter of 2026, Tajikistan exported aluminum and products made from it worth $24.6 million, totaling 5.8 thousand tons.
