The Associated Press (AP) reported on March14 that Iranians are facing difficult decisions about whether to leave their homes or remain in the country as the war involving the United States and Israel continues to escalate.

After bombs exploded near her home in the eastern Iranian city of Golestan, 32-year-old hairdresser Merve Pourkaz decided she had no choice but to leave. She traveled nearly 1,500 kilometers to a mountainous border crossing, hoping to reach safety in the Turkish city of Van.

“If they let me, I will stay in Van until the war ends,” Pourkaz told The Associated Press while waiting at the border crossing. “If the war doesn’t end, maybe I’ll go back and die.”

Pourkaz is among the estimated 3.2 million people displaced within Iran since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, according to the U.N. refugee agency. While some Iranians are seeking shelter in safer areas inside the country or crossing into neighboring states, others are returning from abroad to protect their families and homes.

So far, relatively few people have chosen to leave the country entirely. The United Nations estimates that about 1,300 Iranians have crossed into Turkiye each day since the conflict began. On some days, the number of people returning to Iran even exceeds those leaving. Still, neighboring countries and European governments are increasingly concerned that the conflict could trigger a larger migration crisis if the fighting continues.

At the same time Pourkaz was entering Turkiye, Leila Rabetnezhadfard was traveling in the opposite direction, AP says.

Rabetnezhadfard, 45, had been in Istanbul preparing to marry a German university professor when the fighting broke out. She postponed the wedding and returned to her home city of Shiraz in southern Iran.

“How can I feel safe in Istanbul when my family is living in Iran during the war?” she said. Rabetnezhadfard explained that bringing her family to Turkiye was not feasible because her apartment is small, her brother requires medical care, and living costs in Istanbul are high.

“I will not leave Iran until the war ends,” she said.

Fleeing the fighting

The United Nations has reportedly warned that continued hostilities could force far more Iranians to abandon their homes.

As during last year’s 12-day conflict, many people are choosing to shelter in place. Some lack the financial resources to flee, while others have been influenced by warnings such as the one issued by U.S. President Donald Trump on February 28.

“Stay sheltered. Don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere,” Trump said at the time, according to AP.

Despite fears of escalation, large numbers of Iranians have not yet left the country. Instead, many residents of major cities have moved temporarily to rural areas along the Caspian Sea north of the capital, Tehran, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM).

“Movement out of Iran appears limited mainly because people are prioritizing staying with their families, as well as the safety of their families and property, and due to security conditions and logistical constraints,” said Salvador Gutierrez, head of the IOM mission in Iran.

However, analysts warn that the situation could change rapidly if critical infrastructure is damaged, AP reports, noting that scenario could push large numbers of people toward Iran’s borders with Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkiye, and Iraq.

“If Tehran, a city of 10 million people, doesn’t have water, they’re going to go somewhere,” said Alex Vatanka, a fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

Iran is already coping with one of the world’s largest refugee populations — about 2.5 million forcibly displaced people, mostly from Afghanistan and Iraq.

Neighbors brace for possible influx

Aid organizations say that if the crisis deepens, the most likely escape routes for refugees will be toward Iran’s borders with Iraq and Turkiye. These borders stretch roughly 2,200 kilometers (1,367 miles) across mountainous terrain inhabited by many Kurdish communities and are difficult to control.

During Syria’s prolonged civil war, Turkiye maintained an “open-door” policy that allowed millions of Syrian refugees to enter the country. However, Ankara has since abandoned that approach for several reasons.

Instead, Turkish authorities are preparing contingency plans to house potential Iranian refugees in “buffer zones” along the border, or in tent cities and temporary housing inside Turkey, according to reports by the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet, citing Interior Minister Mustafa Ciftci.

Many Iranians fleeing the war are unlikely to seek formal refugee status in Turkiye because the asylum process can take years, said Sara Karakoyun, an aid worker with the Human Resource Development Foundation near the border.

“They don’t want to wait in limbo for years for a refugee status they might not get,” she said.

Turkiye has also reinforced its border with Iran. The Turkish Defense Ministry said in January that authorities had built 380 kilometers of concrete walls, installed 203 optical surveillance towers, and established 43 observation posts.

According to Riccardo Gasco, an analyst at the IstanPol Institute, Turkiye may deploy additional troops to secure the border and strictly control the flow of migrants while seeking financial support from the European Union to manage the situation.

Europe prepares for a potential crisis

Europe is also watching the situation closely. The relationship between the European Union and Turkiye was significantly reshaped during the Syrian refugee crisis a decade ago, when nearly two-thirds of the 4.5 million Syrians fleeing the war sought refuge in Turkey. Many later traveled onward to Europe by sea.

In 2016, the EU and Turkiye reached a migration agreement in which Brussels offered Ankara incentives and up to €6 billion ($7.1 billion) to support Syrian refugees in Turkey in exchange for preventing large numbers of migrants from crossing into Greece.

Humanitarian organizations criticized the arrangement, arguing it created overcrowded camps with poor living conditions. However, EU leaders have said the deal helped save lives, reduced irregular migration, and improved conditions for refugees in Turkiye.

The agreement is due for renewal this year, but public sentiment in Turkiye has increasingly turned against Syrian refugees, while anti-immigration political parties have gained momentum in several European countries.

Meanwhile, another humanitarian crisis is unfolding even closer to Europe. Fighting in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah has already displaced more than 800,000 people.

“We’ve got a situation in the Middle East that could have grave humanitarian consequences at a time when humanitarian funding has been drastically reduced,” said Ninette Kelley, chair of the World Refugee & Migration Council, referring to cuts to U.S. foreign aid under the Trump administration.

“Is the world ready for another humanitarian disaster?” she asked.

The "Shajareh Tayebe" school in the city of Mina, located in southern Iran, became a target on the first day of the U.S. and Israel's war against Iran. The attack resulted in the deaths of approximately 170 students and dozens of teachers. This horrific crime, initially ignored by the media and denied by the U.S. president and defense secretary, is now under increasing investigation, and the American role in it is becoming clearer.

Reports from media outlets and early admissions from U.S. officials confirm the strong likelihood that the United States, rather than Iran, is responsible for the killings. U.S. Congress is demanding that officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, provide reports and the results of an investigation into the attack on the school. It appears that this tragedy could bring an end to the careers of not only the U.S. defense secretary but also the president.

"All my hopes were destroyed": the attack on the school

The attack on "Shajareh Tayebe," a school where children aged 7 to 12 studied, took place on February 28, when parents were bringing their children to school, and classrooms were full of students.

According to Iran's Ministry of Education, there were 264 students in the school that day. Sources report that 170 people were killed.

The school was hit by three separate strikes, according to eyewitness accounts and independent media investigations. Two Red Crescent doctors stated that after the first strike, the school principal led a group of students to a prayer room and called their parents to pick them up. Then the second strike hit, destroying the shelter. The third strike completely destroyed the remaining two-story building.

The roof of the school collapsed, and hundreds of people, most of whom were young girls, were buried under the rubble.

When news of the attack spread, concerned parents rushed to the school. Security forces tried to push them away from the destroyed building, fearing a new attack. However, parents who had lost their children, hearing their voices under the rubble, began to dig with their bare hands, despite the danger.

After the attack, Iranian media interviewed parents who were searching for their children amidst the fire and water. One parent shared, "The school called and said my daughter was alive. I rushed to pick her up, full of hope. But before I could get there, the second strike occurred, and all my hopes were shattered."

In a video that spread across social media and shocked the world, a man, finding blood-soaked books and notebooks among the ruins, yelled, "These are the books of the children who are now buried under these ruins. Do you see their blood? These are not soldiers, they were not going to war. It was a school, and they came here just to learn!"

The images published after the incident stunned the world: lifeless bodies in the arms of rescuers, books and notebooks stained with blood, tables and chairs amidst the ruins.

Nearby, a military base of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was also attacked.

Victim numbers vary

Ebrahim Tahiri, the prosecutor of Mina, reported that 165 people were killed and 96 were injured, most of whom were students. Other official Iranian sources report 168 dead, while some reports mention up to 180 victims. Among the dead, about 110 were children (66 boys and 54 girls), 26 female teachers, and 4 parents. The school principal was also killed.

On the same day as the school attack, the city's hospital was also attacked, worsening the condition of the wounded. Grieving families went to the hospitals to collect the bodies of their children, and the morgues of Mina were overflowing.

The rescue operation for the survivors concluded on March 1. On March 3, a memorial ceremony was held in the center of the city, attended by thousands of people. Published images showed that more than 100 graves had been dug for the victims of the school attack.

The first response from Mojtaba Khamenei

Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new Supreme Leader, in his first address (read by an announcer), spoke of "revenge for the blood of martyrs" and said, "We will be more sensitive to the blood of our children."

He promised that the crime at the school would be thoroughly investigated.

What Iranian doctors, officials, and analysts say

Masoud Pizishkian, the President of Iran, called the attack on the school the work of the U.S. and Israel, stating that "this will never be erased from the historical memory of our people."

Abbas Araghchi, Iran's Foreign Minister, posted a photo of the destroyed school on social media and wrote, "This is a girls' school in southern Iran. On a clear day, when it was filled with students, it was bombed. Dozens of innocent children were killed… These crimes against the people of Iran will not go unanswered."

Esmail Baghaei, a spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, called the attack "an obvious crime" and condemned it, urging the UN Security Council to act according to its responsibilities under the Charter.

What Trump and U.S. officials say

U.S. officials' responses have been contradictory, simultaneously denying involvement, expressing doubt, and promising a lengthy investigation.

According to Reuters, General Dan Kane, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, on March 2, openly showed a map of attacks, saying that their goal was to weaken Iran’s naval forces in the southern region. Importantly, the map also highlighted the attack on the city of Mina.

Pete Hegseth, U.S. Secretary of Defense, on March 4, refrained from providing specific answers, merely stating, "We are investigating the incident" (a map highlighting the attack on Mina was also presented at that meeting).

On March 7, Donald Trump, the U.S. President, without providing any documentation, blamed Iran, claiming that Iranian weapons were inaccurate and that they may have accidentally hit their own targets—a statement many experts considered absurd and false, typical of Trump.

U.S. senators pressure the Pentagon

On March 9, six key U.S. Senate Democrats, including influential figures like Brian Schatz, Patty Murray, Jack Reed, Mark Warner, Jeanne Shaheen, and Elizabeth Warren, issued a joint statement.

Their statement read, "The murder of schoolchildren under any circumstances is unacceptable and a horrific tragedy. Secretary Hegseth must conduct a thorough and comprehensive investigation to determine whether political decisions by the leadership were the cause of this tragedy."

The senators expressed particular concern about "rules of engagement," prompted by Hegseth’s previous statement, in which he harshly said that "operations against Iran should be conducted without restrictions, using all force and weaponry."

What independent media investigations revealed

Several independent investigations by outlets like Bellingcat, BBC Verify, CNN, NYT, CBC, NPR, and HRW have come to a unified conclusion: the attack on the school in Mina was carried out by the U.S.

The most crucial piece of evidence is that the Iranian news agency Mehr published a video of the attack, claiming the missile was American.

BBC Verify and other media outlets later conducted investigations and confirmed that the school building was hit by a "Tomahawk" missile. According to the researchers, the "Tomahawk" is a long-range naval weapon used exclusively by the U.S.

The Washington Post also reported, citing several weapon experts, that the missile used was a "Tomahawk," and The New York Times, on March 11, citing U.S. officials, reported that the attack was carried out by U.S. forces, citing outdated strike data.

Furthermore, Jeffrey Lewis, a well-known international security expert, rejected the theory that the missile was Iranian, stating that "the missile in this video does not match any known Iranian weapon," according to NBC News.

Reuters, on March 5, citing two U.S. officials involved in an internal investigation, wrote that "it is highly likely that the attack was carried out by U.S. forces."

CBC concluded that the target was a military complex but noted that "the school was attacked either as a result of a military error or serious intelligence failure."

Satellite data shows that until 2016, the site belonged to an IRGC military base but was later separated from it. The school had been functioning as a civilian educational institution for over 10 years, with no evidence of its military use.

International reactions

Following the deadly attack on the school, international organizations and prominent world leaders condemned the incident and called for an immediate investigation.

UNESCO described the attack as "a serious violation of international humanitarian law," emphasizing that schools must be absolutely safe under international law.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres also strongly condemned the attack.

Volker Turk, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, demanded "an immediate, impartial, and thorough investigation," noting that "responsibility for the investigation primarily lies with the forces that carried out the attack."

The UN Committee on the Rights of the Child, consisting of 18 independent experts, expressed deep concern over the incident, stating that "there is no justification for killing girls in a classroom!"

Human rights defenders, having reviewed 14 videos, photos, and 40 satellite images, concluded that the attack was carried out using "high-precision weapons." The organization stressed that this was not a "missile error" and called on the U.S. and Israel to acknowledge their guilt.

Activist and state reactions

Nobel Peace Prize laureate Malala Yousafzai, in a post on social media X, expressed deep sorrow: "This news broke my heart and made me feel anxious. Killing innocent civilians, especially children, is a violation of conscience, and I condemn it entirely."

Ravina Shamdasani, a spokesperson for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, called the attack "the most bloody and destructive event of recent times." She stressed the need for a thorough and independent investigation.

Russia and China also strongly condemned the attack in Mina, calling it "barbaric" and "inhuman" and blamed the U.S. and Israel.

Among European countries, only Italy clearly and directly condemned the attack. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, in the Senate, stated that she strongly condemned "the killing of the girls from Mina school" and demanded that "those responsible be swiftly found."

Other European countries have not yet issued specific statements on the tragedy and have not published any declarations. Other countries, including Central Asian states, have not made official statements regarding the incident.

Media reactions to the attack

The tragedy in Mina made headlines in major international media outlets like NYT, The Washington Post, BBC, CNN, Al Jazeera, Guardian, Reuters, CBC, and NPR. However, most of these outlets remained silent during the first week after the attack, drawing criticism for their lack of coverage.

For example, Marizyush Zawadzki, a Polish journalist for Gazeta Wyborcza, said that Western media largely ignored the incident during the first week and did not give it adequate attention.

Annie Shill, an expert at the Center for Civilian Protection in Conflicts (CIVIC), noted a prevalent trend in U.S. politics: "We have often seen Washington first deny its involvement in attacks, and then independent media and civil society investigations reveal the bitter truth." She warned that there is a risk that authorities will again try to cover up the truth.

Experts argue that, despite international media finally investigating the incident, the delayed response and excessive trust in official statements from U.S. authorities show that pressure from civil society is crucial in uncovering the truth.

Mardon Muhammad, a Tajik journalist who worked for BBC's Russian Service over 20 years, sharply criticized not only the attack itself but also its portrayal in Western media in an interview with Asia-Plus on March 5.

It is worth noting that the attack on the school and the killing of children in Iran by American forces has also faced strong condemnation within the United States, with the number of supporters for investigation and punishment of those responsible growing daily.

The U.S. Congress has now taken notice of the case and demanded a detailed report from the defense secretary about the investigation. The results of this investigation and the detailed report could expose the authorities behind the Middle East war.

The U.S. State Department has announced a reward of up to $10 million for information leading to the whereabouts of Mojtaba Khamenei, the newly appointed Supreme Leader of Iran, and other key leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The reward, part of the "Rewards for Justice" program, was announced in a statement on the program's website, though no specific publication date was mentioned. The news gained significant attention on March 13, according to reports by DW.

Along with Khamenei, nine other senior Iranian figures were added to the list of targets. The individuals named include Ali Asghar Hejazi, head of the Supreme Leader’s office; Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s National Security Council; Yahya Rahim Safavi, senior military advisor; Eskandar Momeni, Minister of the Interior; and Esmail Khatib, Minister of Intelligence.

The list also includes unnamed officials such as the Secretary of the Defense Council, the Supreme Leader’s military advisor, and the commander of the IRGC.

While the maximum reward under the program can reach $25 million, the U.S. has offered a lower reward of up to $10 million for information related to the Iranian leadership. The State Department has also offered safety assistance to informants, including possible relocation. Tips can be submitted via the Tor browser and Signal messaging app.

Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, was named as the new Supreme Leader of Iran on March 9. He is the second son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli-American airstrike on February 28. The strike also killed dozens of high-ranking Iranian officials, including nearly all of the country’s senior military leaders.

Several members of the Khamenei family died in the attack, and it was later confirmed that Mojtaba was injured in the strike.

On March 12, Khamenei made his first public statement as Supreme Leader, vowing to take revenge for those killed in the airstrikes and confirming that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would continue.

The address was read by a state television anchor, as Khamenei did not appear on screen. This led to widespread speculation that he may have been seriously injured or possibly killed.