The World Bank forecast published this month, titled Global Economic Prospects, projects economic growth in most Central Asia’s nations to remain mostly flat, or experience slight dips in growth in the coming years.
An increase in oil exports is projected to push up Kazakhstan’s growth rate in 2025 to 4.7 percent from last year’s estimated rate of 4 percent. But the country’s rate in 2026 is expected to settle back to 3.5 percent.
Growth rates in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are projected to remain comparatively stable over the next two years at 4.5 percent and 5.8 percent respectively.
The World Bank did not report economic data for Turkmenistan.
As far as Tajikistan is concerned, the World Bank forecast projects it to be the worst economic performer in the Central Asian region, with the growth rate predicted to recede to 5.0 in 2026 from last year’s rate of 8.0 percent.
Remittances in Tajikistan reportedly remain robust, sustaining private consumption and remittances inflows to Tajikistan are anticipated to support activity and improve current account balances.
However, weaker-than-expected growth in Russia has a significant impact on Central Asia, primarily through reduced remittance inflows. For example, in Tajikistan, remittances account for nearly 40 percent of GDP—one of the highest ratios in the world, with most inflows originating from Russia.
