Kazakhstan will impose a six-month ban on the export of gasoline, diesel, and a range of other petroleum products starting November 20, including shipments to countries within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The decision, announced by the Kazakh Ministry of Energy on November 12, will be implemented in stages.
From November 20, 2025, to May 20, 2026, the ban covers unrefined oil, gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, gasoil, lubricants, and various hydrocarbon-based additives. It also includes restrictions on rail exports of certain petroleum products.
A second phase of the export ban will take effect from January 1 to June 30, 2026, targeting light distillates, aviation kerosene, bitumen, and chemicals such as toluene and xylene used in the petrochemical industry.
What does this mean for Tajikistan?
Tajikistan remains heavily dependent on imported fuel, with over 90% of petroleum products sourced from abroad, primarily from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. In various years, Kazakhstan has supplied between 15% and 25% of specific fuel categories.
During past disruptions in Russian fuel supply, Kazakhstan often served as an alternative source, particularly for diesel.
While the new restrictions will likely reduce one supply channel, experts say a critical fuel shortage in Tajikistan is not expected. Russia remains the country’s main fuel partner, operating under preferential agreements with duty-free quotas.
However, analysts caution that increased demand for Russian fuel across the region could drive up prices—especially in the spring months, when consumption typically rises.
