DUSHANBE, February 8, 2011, Asia-Plus — While the rest of Afghanistan will see a slight decrease in opium cultivation in 2011, one province bordering Turkmenistan is expected to produce more poppy this year, the United Nations predicts in its latest report.
“A strong increase is expected in opium cultivation in Herat province,” says the 26-page Afghanistan Opium Survey 2011 report prepared by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) in a joint effort with the Afghan government’s Ministry of Counter Narcotics.
According to the Survey, there was an increase in opium cultivation in Herat province by an estimated 35% percent already in 2010 due to the price of opium approaching 7-year high mark.
“At the national level, in December 2010, dry opium prices at the farm-gate level crossed the highest price recorded in November 2004″, the report says, adding that Herat commanded one of the highest prices – up to 312 U.S. dollars per kilogram – among other poppy cultivating provinces making it a very attractive crop for some Afghan farmers.
Admitting that “none of Afghanistan’s licit agricultural products can currently match the gross income per hectare from opium,” the Survey stresses the need for further efforts targeted at providing farmers with more security and better alternatives.
“Villages with a low level of security and which had not received agricultural assistance in the previous year were significantly more likely to grow poppy in 2011 than villages with good security and those, which had received assistance. Similarly, villages which had been targeted by an anti-poppy awareness campaign were significantly less likely to grow poppy in 2011,” the report says.
Data collected by the UNODC shows that opium cultivation in 2010 was observed in only 3 out 8 Afghan provinces bordering Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. While forecasting increase in opium cultivating in Herat for 2011, the Survey notes that cultivation would be relatively low (volume wise) and Herat “could become poppy-free if effective poppy eradication measures are implemented.”
In spite of projected slight decrease in overall opium cultivation in 2011 over 2010, when poppy fields occupied an estimated 123,00 hectares of Afghanistan’s territory, experts warn that Afghan opium will continue to be a major headache for counter-narcotics efforts worldwide, including Afghanistan’s neighbors in Central Asia.
“It is a big problem because Afghanistan, by far, is the world’s largest producer of opium and opium products such as heroin. Ninety-five, ninety-eight percent of the world’s production is from Afghanistan, and of that, the estimate for some time has been that 20 percent, maybe more, goes out through Central Asia,” Ambassador R. Grant Smith, Senior Fellow at the Central Asia – Caucasus Institute in Washington, told Silk Road Newsline in an interview.
“A lot of heroin goes through Tajikistan and then it goes out through Turkmenistan and probably Uzbekistan as well, but particularly Turkmenistan. Probably in Turkmenistan the proportion of opium is slightly higher. From Tajikistan it goes north and it goes into Uzbekistan. From Turkmenistan it probably goes to the West,” said Smith who was the U.S. ambassador in Tajikistan from 1995 to 1998 and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement from 1991 to 1994.
According to Smith, fighting trafficking of Afghan opium and heroin in Central Asia would require time, money, determination and, above all, strong international cooperation.
“It’s a package of issues. With the trafficking itself you have a whole set of issues of criminality, the possibility that these traffickers will have huge influence over the countries through which the trafficking is going, plus the addiction and health issues that go with it. So it is a very big problem for Central Asia and for the countries beyond Central Asia. They do need to cooperate,” he said.
A key factor would be a strong cooperation between Afghanistan and its immediate neighbors.
“Recently there has been increased cooperation among the countries of Central Asia and with Afghanistan and Russia to go after the traffickers. This is the kind of cooperation that is extremely important to get at the trafficking side of it,” Smith said.
