DUSHANBE, March 24, 2011, Asia-Plus — FAO”s first forecast for world wheat production in 2011 stands at 676 million tons, representing a growth of 3.4 percent from 2010, the March 2011 edition of the Crop Prospects and Food Situation report said on March 23.
However, this level would still be below the bumper harvests in 2008 and 2009.
Wheat plantings in many countries have increased or are expected to increase this year in response to strong prices, while yield recoveries are forecast in areas that were affected by drought in 2010, the Russian Federation in particular, the report specified.
As the bulk of the world”s coarse grains and paddy crops are yet to be planted, it is, however, too early to forecast total cereal production for this year.
Looking back to last year”s production, the FAO report notes that in the low-income food-deficit countries (LIFDCs) as a group, the 2010 cereal output rose by 5.6 percent, a development that will result in reduced cereal imports in the 2010/11marketing years.
But this will not necessarily spell much relief for these countries as their overall cereal import bill is estimated to increase by 20 percent because of higher international prices, the report said.
In Asia, good 2011 wheat harvests are forecast in India and Pakistan. In China, the drought situation in the North Plain has been eased by recent precipitation but the outlook for the wheat crop still remains uncertain.
In the Asia CIS subregion, where Kazakhstan is the major producer, the bulk of the crop is yet to be sown but in view of current strong prices plantings are expected to be in line with the relatively high level of the past two years. Assuming a recovery in yields after last year”s drought-reduced level, a significant increase in production could be achieved.
According to the report, the need for food assistance, nevertheless, persists in many areas, with 29 countries currently requiring external assistance for food. Of these, 21 countries are in Africa and seven in Asia. The displacement of large numbers of people in North Africa because of recent political events in that region also has made emergency assistance necessary.
In the meantime, specialists from the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) say 200,000 hectares have been allocated to cereals this year and local farmers are expected to produce no less than 1.2 million tons of cereals this year.
We will recall that grain production in Tajikistan exceeded one million tons for the first time in 2009. In 2009, Tajik farmers produced more than 1.25 million tons of cereals, including almost 900,000 tons of wheat. In 2008, Tajikistan produced 952,000 tons of cereals, including some 700,000 tons of wheat.
Tajikistan’s annual requirements in cereals are now more than 1.6 million tons, and therefore, the country every year imports up to 600,000 tons of wheat and flour.
