DUSHANBE, May 13, 2011, Asia-Plus — Rise in food and fuel prices may affect inflation rates in Tajikistan, Mr. Ari Aisen, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Resident Representative in Tajikistan, remarked at a news conference in Dushanbe yesterday.
“We hope the year-end inflation rate for 2011 will be 10 percent. Our forecast for Tajikistan’s average inflation is some higher than this figure, but it is close to this figure,” Mr. Aisen said.
He noted that with the exception of food and fuel prices, the other prices remained stable in a domestic market.
According to the IMF resident representative, to provide stability of prices in the domestic market Tajikistan ought to watch the situation in Russia’s fuel market. “This may influence inflation in the country substantially,” he said.
Mr. Aisen stressed that it was important to Tajikistan to prevent impact of rising import prices on prices for domestic goods and services.
Food and fuel prices have certain social consequences for poor sections of the population. “The poor sections of the population spend a major part of their income on food purchases, and therefore, it is necessary to adhere to an adequate policy that would help strengthen purchase power of these sections of the population,” he said.
Mr. Aisen supposes that rise in fuel and food products in the domestic market has led to increase in imports, dollarwise, that caused a certain shortage of currency in the country.
On the currency shortage and fall in value of the somoni that were reported in the country last week, he noted that that tend was a seasonal one. “At present, migrants’ remittances are not at the highest level, because they just began to leave the country,” the IMF resident representative noted.
Mr. Aisen added that the National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) should maintain the exchange rate stability and avoid sharp fluctuations because they may have devastating impact on the country’s economy.
