DUSHANBE, May 26, 2011, Asia-Plus – Local experts consider that the International Crisis Group (ICG) warning that Tajikistan allegedly faces a growing security threat from both local and external rebels has made unfounded conclusions.
Chairman of the Association of Political Scientists of Tajikistan, Abdughani Mamadazimov, says that with killing of the militant leader Mullo Abdullo there is no any threat from local rebels.
“If a new militant leader appears, he will not be from Tajik society, most likely, he will be sent here from outside – from Afghanistan or Pakistan,” said Mamadazimov, “Anyway, he will not have the same moral authority as former field commanders.”
The political scientist added that threat from external rebels could be ruled out only under the condition if work of the country’s law enforcement and power-wielding structures to detect and neutralize any illegal armed group was properly organized.
The Islamic Revival Party (IRP) leader Muhiddin Kabiri, who is also member of Tajikistan’s lower house of (Majlisi Namoyandagon) of parliament, noted that “in various reports, international organizations have predicted social unrests in Tajikistan for already several times.”
“The situation in the country is really not so good, but those predictions, however, have not yet come true,” said Kabiri, “It is to be noted that not always the same factors in different countries lead to the same results and consequences.”
We will recall that the ICG latest report entitled “Tajikistan: The Changing Insurgent Threats” warns that Tajikistan faces a growing security threat from both local and external rebels. The report warns that the country is profoundly vulnerable socially, economically, politically and militarily. According to the report, the fact that Tajikistan shares a long, poorly protected border with Afghanistan amplifies its problems and risks contaminating an already complicated region.
“The secular, Soviet-trained leadership that emerged from the civil war now finds itself dealing with a society increasingly drawn to observant Islam. The regime’s response to this is as inept as its efforts to bring Rasht to heel. Tajiks studying in foreign Islamic institutions have been called home; the government is trying to control the content of Friday sermons and prevent young people from visiting mosques; it has also dismissed some clerics. Officials allege that the main opposition party, the Islamic Renaissance Party, is becoming increasingly radicalized. Clumsy policies may make this a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
According to the report, jihadist groups, too, are paying more attention to Tajikistan. Limited infiltration of armed guerrillas from Afghanistan has been taking place for several years. “Most seem to be moving on to other parts of the region, but a weakened Tajikistan will increasingly be an attractive base area for Central Asian guerrillas trained in Pakistan and Afghanistan.”
Insecurity is only one of many problems, the report says, noting that the economy is moribund, the regime is a byword for corruption.
