DUSHANBE, December 22, 2014, Asia-Plus – Specialists from the National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) note that there is a potential risk of decrease in a two-way trade between Tajikistan and Russia against the backdrop of the Russian ruble (RR) depreciation.
“However, a two-way trade between Tajikistan and Russian has risen 41.8 percent over the first ten months of this year,” said an official source at Tajik central bank. “Over this period, Tajikistan’s exports to Russia have increased by 5.6 percent and Tajikistan’s imports from Russia have increased by 27.6 percent”
Besides, depreciation of the currency of one of two trading partners (in this case, the Russian ruble) will lead to reduction in prices of goods imported from that country, the source noted. “The Russian market is traditionally the main market for our country and since imports from Russia prevail over our exports to Russia, the ruble depreciation will stimulate increase in imports,” he said.
The source noted that the ruble depreciation can affect Tajikistan’s economy and bilateral economic cooperation indirectly through the real cost of remittance flows from Russia.
“A share of the Russian currency in a total volume of Tajikistan’s currency inflows and outflows is 52.6 and 23.2 percent respectively, and therefore, the ruble depreciation cannot but affect Tajikistan’s internal currency market,” the source said.
“Decrease in purchasing power that has resulted from reduction in remittance flows can lead to decrease in consumer demand and economic activity in the country,” the source added.
Some local experts say that Tajikistan is suffering from the ruble deprecation mainly because it has a large number of nationals working in the Russian Federation, and therefore, Tajikistan has seen the value of remittances migrant workers send home diminish. According to some sources, Tajikistan”s national currency, the somoni, has dropped 5.5 percent.
