DUSHANBE, April 12, 2016, Asia-Plus – Freedom House’s survey,
Nations in Transit 2016
, notes that Tajikistan increasingly resembles a one-party state. The ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP), led by President Emomali Rahmon, dominated parliamentary elections held in March 2015. Tajikistan’s post-independence elections have been marred by corruption and the intimidation of opposition candidates, and these elections were no different.
The Tajik authorities reportedly continue to view civil society as a potential threat to regime security and social stability. A “foreign agents” bill similar to Russia’s 2012 legislation passed into law in early 2015. The new law requires non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to gain approval from the government for any projects supported by external donors.
The survey notes that corrupt officials control key public economic assets such as the Talco aluminum smelter and have created personal slush funds by diverting profits to offshore accounts. Even though a 2009 audit of the National Bank by Ernst and Young found that National Bank chief Murodali Alimardon had taken $550 million in undeclared loans, new evidence from 2015 suggested that he had managed to take an additional $120 million since then. While officials act with impunity, the government uses corruption charges to neutralize its opponents.
Tajikistan remains the poorest country in post-communist Eurasia, according to the report. Money sent back from migrants working outside of the country comprises over half of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). With Russia’s economic recession, these remittances fell sharply in 2015, making life even more difficult for many Tajik households.
National Democratic Governance rating declined from 6.50 to 7.00 due to the government’s wide-ranging crackdown on political opposition.
Judicial Framework and Independence rating declined from 6.50 to 6.75 due to the increasingly arbitrary and politicized use of the court system against opposition and their lawyers, journalists, and religious believers.
Corruption rating declined from 6.25 to 6.50 due to further consolidation of the presidential family’s control over state institutions engaged in corruption.
As a result, Tajikistan’s Democracy Score declined from 6.39 to 6.54, the survey said.
Outlook for 2016: The government will continue to repress both secular and religious opposition in 2016. With remittances sent back from migrant laborers in Russia drying up, Tajik households will feel the strain in 2016. Unemployment will increase as thousands of migrants return home with limited prospects of finding work. Faced with dwindling economic fortunes and an increasingly authoritarian regime, disillusionment with the state of affairs will only grow in the coming year.
The 2016 ratings reflect the period January 1 through December 31, 2015.
Nations in Transit
is Freedom House’s research project on democracy in the 29 formerly communist countries from Central Europe to Central Asia. The flagship of the project is an annual survey of democratic reform that has been published since 1995, and with the same methodology since 2003.
Nations in Transit
also publishes briefs on topics relevant to democratic reform in the region.
Nations in Transit
researchers score the countries on a scale of 1 to 7 in seven categories: National Democratic Governance; Local Democratic Governance; Electoral Process; Independent Media; Civil Society; Judicial Framework and Independence; and Corruption. Category scores are based on a detailed list of questions available here. These category scores are straight-averaged to create a country’s “Democracy Score” on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 being the most democratic, and 7 the least.
