Central Asia is poised for solid economic performance in the near term, driven by robust consumer demand, rising wages, and strong remittance inflows, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). However, the region remains vulnerable to external shocks, including commodity price volatility and over-reliance on remittances and major trading partners such as Russia and China.
In its Regional Economic Prospects 2025 report, the EBRD forecasts regional GDP growth of 6.1% this year, followed by a slight slowdown to 5.2% in 2026.
“Central Asian economies maintained strong momentum in the first half of 2025, supported by rising real wages, robust domestic demand, and steady remittance inflows,” the report states. “While industrial output remained resilient, volatility in global commodity markets affected mining production and exports.”
Inflation trends diverged across the region: it eased in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, but accelerated in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, driven by fiscal stimulus, rising food prices, and utility tariff hikes.
Kyrgyzstan leads the region
While Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are generally seen as the region’s largest and most dynamic economies, the EBRD identifies Kyrgyzstan as the “pacesetter”, projecting 9% GDP growth in 2025, slowing to 6% in 2026. The report attributes this to strong public investment, buoyant consumer demand, and growth in manufacturing, trade, construction, as well as a thriving tourism sector.
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan remain regional anchors
Kazakhstan is projected to grow 5.7% in 2025, easing to 4.5% in 2026, supported by expanded oil production at the Tengiz field, major public infrastructure investments, and rising household spending. The EBRD warns, however, of downside risks, including dependence on Russian transit infrastructure and commodity price swings.
Uzbekistan is expected to maintain stable growth, with GDP rising 6.7% in 2025 and 6% in 2026, backed by strong domestic consumption, foreign investment, and rising gold exports. The diversified manufacturing sector continues to be a key growth driver.
Tajikistan: strong growth, but vulnerable to remittance fluctuations
Tajikistan’s economy is forecast to grow 7.5% in 2025, then slow to 5.7%. The EBRD highlights robust remittance inflows, household consumption, and performance in the mining, agriculture, and transport sectors. Still, it notes that a potential decline in remittances remains a major downside risk, especially amid reports of inflationary pressures affecting household purchasing power.
Turkmenistan holds steady
Turkmenistan’s opaque political and economic environment complicates independent analysis, but the EBRD accepts official figures, projecting 6.3% growth through 2026, citing state-led investments in energy, agriculture, infrastructure, and food processing.
