According to the World Bank Listening to Tajikistan (L2T) survey, monetary welfare has slowly improved in 2016.
The results indicate that for the period of May-August 2016, year-on-year, growth was driven by higher per capita wage income (18.1 percent), and higher per capita income from agriculture and self-employment (5.3 percent). The average value of remittance transfers increased by about 5.5 percent over the same period the year before. Growth in remittance income has been uneven however. Remittance income of the households in the bottom 40 percent of the consumption distribution declined by about 9 percent between May and August 2016, while that of the top 60 percent saw an increase of about 16.3 percent over the same period. Findings also suggest that a larger share of labor migrants are currently employed, rising from 81 percent to 85 percent over the same period.
The survey says remittances are a critical source of income for households in Tajikistan, and an area of concern following the Russian economic contraction, depreciation of Russian ruble, and tightening of migration regulations.
Official data indicate that in nominal USD terms, remittances were 22 percent lower in the first half of 2016 than the same period in 2015, according to L2T. However, when remittances are instead reported in real somoni (TJS) terms (which is more directly relevant for measuring welfare in Tajikistan), official data indicate that remittances began recovering slightly in the first half of 2016 (by about 2.4 percent over the same period the year before), the survey said.
The L2T data, also reported in terms of real TJS, similarly indicate that remittances began to recover some lost ground in 2016. Between May-August 2016, the average value of remittance transfers increased by about 5.5 percent over the same period the year before. The share of households receiving remittances over the preceding 10-day period also slightly increased from 11.4 to 13.7 percent.
Growth in remittance income has reportedly been uneven however. Remittance income of the households in the bottom 40 percent of the consumption distribution declined by about 9 percent between May and August 2016, while that of the top 60 percent saw an increase of about 16.3 percent over the same period.
The L2T survey also monitors the number of migrants returning to Tajikistan, presented as a share of migrants currently abroad. Since 2015, this ratio has reportedly declined slightly, from 1.9 percent during May-August 2015 to 1.6 percent during May-August 2016. Households have also recently indicated that a larger share of labor migrants are currently employed, rising from 81 percent to 85 percent over the same period.
