A report by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) that was released on December 14 notes that next year, economic growth projections are expected to improve in all its member nations. The report presents a preliminary overview of economic developments in the Bank’s member states for 2023, along with key macroeconomic projections for 2024, as well as 2025 and 2026.
The EDB Macroeconomic Outlook 2024–2026 says Bank analysts anticipate that gross domestic product (GDP) across the region’s countries will be close to a balanced growth path. In 2024, projections indicate a GDP growth of 5.7% in Armenia, 2.0% in Belarus, 5.0% in Kazakhstan, 4.5% in Kyrgyzstan, 1.5% in Russia, and 7.3% in Tajikistan.
EDB analysts shared insights into the key trends observed in the global economy and their repercussions on Eurasia. The imposition of tighter monetary conditions around the world, primarily in developed nations, has notably curbed consumer price growth. However, this policy has significantly increased borrowing costs for households and businesses. Consequently, the global trend of economic slowdown not only persists but has preconditions for exacerbation.
The subdued global economic growth is reportedly expected to restrain the demand for commodities, thereby constraining the potential for increased export earnings in most EDB economies. However, the proactive utilization of internal growth sources has led to an improvement in the 2023 estimate and 2024 projections. The persistent implementation of stimulating fiscal policies and structural transformations foster an environment conducive to investment and consumer activity. EDB analysts forecast a 2.0% growth in the region’s GDP by the end of 2024.
The report notes that following Kazakhstan’s economic growth of 4.8% in 2023, acceleration in GDP growth rates to 5% is anticipated for 2024, further bolstered by high investment activity.
EDB analysts posit that the economies of Russia and Belarus have fully adapted to the new environment, rebounding to end-2021 levels as early as Q3 2023. This reportedly became possible due to the establishment of new value chains and a refocus on domestic demand. The resulting momentum is expected to maintain its impact, projecting a 1.5% growth rate for Russia in 2024, with further acceleration anticipated in 2025 and 2026. Belarus’s economy is forecast to grow by 2% in 2024, surpassing the past decade’s average.
According to the report, strong domestic demand supported high economic activity in Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in 2023. EDB analysts project a slight deceleration in these countries in 2024, albeit with GDP growth rates still noticeably higher than the global average: 5.7% in Armenia, 4.5% in Kyrgyzstan and 7.3% in Tajikistan.
EDB researchers also expect the inflationary trend across the Bank’s region to slow further, with the aggregate inflation rate to decrease to 5.8% by the end of 2024 from 7.8% in 2023. Despite this trend, inflation is projected to persist above targets in most countries in the region. In 2024, analysts at the Bank anticipate inflation rates to reach 3.6% in Armenia, 8.0% in Belarus, 7.1% in Kazakhstan, 7.8% in Kyrgyzstan, 5.4% in Russia, and 6.6% in Tajikistan.
In 2024, a slowdown in inflation is anticipated to pave the way for a gradual decline in interest rates in most countries in the region.
The Eurasian Development Bank is an international financial institution investing in Eurasia. For more than eighteen years, the Bank has worked to strengthen and expand economic ties and foster comprehensive development in its member countries – Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. The EDB's charter capital totals US$7 billion. Its portfolio mainly consists of projects with an integration effect in transport infrastructure, digital systems, green energy, agriculture, manufacturing, and mechanical engineering. The Bank’s operations are guided by the UN Sustainable Development Goals and ESG principles. The Eurasian Development Bank has observer status in the UN General Assembly.
