In 2025, coffee prices in Tajikistan could rise due to increasing prices on the global market. Coffee in the country is fully imported, and its cost depends on global prices, exchange rates, and delivery expenses.
Global coffee prices have reached a historic high. On December 17, the price of Arabica beans on the ICE exchange rose to US$7.8 per kilogram, the highest level since 1960. The price increase is linked to worsening weather conditions in Brazil and Vietnam, the key coffee-producing countries. Experts note that drought in Brazil has led to reduced harvests.
According to Anton Trenin, an expert in corporate ratings at Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA), a Moscow-based rating agency, coffee prices in Russia could increase by approximately 20–25% by 2025. He believes that rising global coffee prices will inevitably affect all countries importing coffee processed and packaged in Russia, including Tajikistan. Despite the small consumption volume, coffee in Tajikistan is fully imported. This creates a direct dependency on global prices, currency fluctuations, and logistics costs.
Given the limited demand and small import volumes, Tajikistan is unlikely to face a coffee shortage in the near future. However, its affordability for the general population remains uncertain. The predicted price increase could make coffee a product primarily for the affluent.
Not everyone will be able to afford a cup of coffee at cafés, where the average price in Dushanbe is 25 somonis. In the near future, this price could rise to 40 somonis.
Coffee consumption and market specifics in Tajikistan
According to WorldPopulationReview.com, coffee consumption in Tajikistan is only 0.25 kg per capita annually, one of the lowest levels globally. By comparison, residents of Kazakhstan consume 4.85 kg per capita, Russia reaches 2.5 kg, Kyrgyzstan 1.36 kg, and Uzbekistan 0.88 kg.
The low popularity of coffee in Central Asian countries, including Tajikistan, is attributed to cultural traditions where tea is the preferred beverage.
Coffee imports into Tajikistan
Coffee imports to Tajikistan over the past three years have shown interesting trends influenced by both global and local factors.
In 2022, Tajikistan imported coffee worth $187,500, totaling 31.8 tons. The average price per kilogram was US$5.9.
In 2023, the country imported over 43 tons of coffee worth about $188,000. The average price per kilogram was US$4.35.
Over the first nine months of this year, Tajikistan has imported coffee and coffee substitutes worth $131,900, totaling 24,692 kg. The average price per kilogram was US$5.34.
Coffee prices in Tajikistan
Although there are no official statistics on the reasons for rising coffee prices in Tajikistan, it can be assumed that global trends play a key role. Increases in raw material prices, supply chain disruptions, and rising demand contribute to the higher cost of coffee in the local market.
Experts note that an Arabica shortage is unlikely in the coming months, but prices for this variety are expected to continue rising. Some brands of coffee may temporarily disappear from shelves, potentially shifting consumer preferences toward more affordable varieties like Robusta.
Coffee prices in Tajikistan range from 2.00 somonis for single-serve sticks to 399.00 somonis for premium brands.
Supermarkets in the country offer a wide variety of coffee to suit every taste: instant, ground, whole bean, and capsule. Asia-Plus analyzed prices to help consumers find the most suitable option.
Conclusion
The global rise in coffee prices will inevitably impact the Tajik market, where the product is entirely imported. The expected price increase will make coffee less accessible to the general population, and consumption levels are likely to remain low due to the dominant tea-drinking culture.
Nevertheless, the variety of coffee types and price ranges available in the country’s supermarkets allows everyone to find a suitable option despite global trends and challenges.
