As of July 1, 2025, Tajikistan’s total public or national debt stands at US$3.6 billion, equivalent to 21.4% of the country’s GDP. This was announced by the Minister of Finance, Fayziddin Qahhorzoda, during a news conference in Dushanbe on August 8.
Out of this total, US$3.1 billion (88%) is external debt, constituting 18.7% of the GDP, while internal debt amounts to US$422 million (12% of GDP). It is noteworthy that at the beginning of the year, the public debt was also US$3.6 billion, but at that time, it accounted for 25.2% of the country's GDP.
Public or national debt is any financial obligation (such as bonds or loans) assumed by the government, where it agrees to make interest and principal payments on certain dates. Public debt can be raised both externally and internally, where external debt is the debt owed to lenders outside the country and internal debt represents the government’s obligations to domestic lenders.
Public debt servicing in the first half of 2025
In the first half of 2025, Tajikistan spent US$224.4 million on servicing its national debt. Of this amount, US$184.6 million was used to pay down the principal, and US$39.8 million was allocated to interest payments. Despite the high volume of debt obligations, Minister Qahhorzoda emphasized that Tajikistan has the capacity to borrow additional funds up to 60% of GDP, which is crucial for the country’s continued financial growth.
According to Qahhorzoda, China remains the largest creditor of the country. During the reporting period, Tajikistan’s debt to China reportedly decreased from US$1 billion to approximately US$700 million. In addition to China, Tajikistan has outstanding debts to the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
Managing public debt risks
Tajikistan continues to implement its debt management strategy for 2024-2026. The country is focusing on managing key risks related to the national debt.
- Currency Risk: With 88% of the external debt denominated in foreign currencies, the government plans to increase the share of domestic financing in somonis to reduce currency risks.
- Interest Rate Risk: To mitigate this risk, the majority of the debt will be maintained with fixed interest rates.
- Refinancing Risk: The government is optimizing debt repayment terms and developing long-term strategies for attracting funds to reduce refinancing risk.
- Operational Risk: This will be minimized by improving information systems and training personnel.
These measures aim to ensure the country’s financial stability and better manage debt risks.
Public debt ceiling set at 60% of GDP
To ensure fiscal stability and minimize debt risks, target indicators for 2024-2026 have been set to improve the country's financial condition. According to these targets, the national debt should not exceed 60% of GDP, which will help keep it within safe limits.
Servicing external debt will be limited to 15% of the export of goods and services, and should not exceed 25% of the state budget revenues. These measures will prevent overburdening the budget as external obligations rise.
A key aspect of ensuring debt sustainability is minimizing the cost of external loans. The level of concessionality for external loans, including grants, will be no less than 35%, ensuring access to financing on favorable terms and reducing the debt burden.
Additionally, for the 2024-2026 period, the government plans to issue state treasury bonds in somonis at a level of 100%, which will enhance domestic liquidity and strengthen financial stability.
The debt management strategy includes several scenarios for effectively managing debt obligations. The main objective is to meet the government's financing needs with minimal costs and manageable risks. Specifically, the government plans to attract concessional loans and utilize both external and internal funding sources.
In the event of rising interest rates in international markets, the government is also considering the option of refinancing Eurobonds to reduce the budgetary burden. Key measures include attracting long-term loans and managing debt maturity schedules to ensure Tajikistan’s financial stability in the medium term.
