The projected decline in global gold prices in the coming years may negatively affect Tajikistan's economy, analysts at the international rating agency Standard & Poor's Global Ratings say.
In the Justification of Tajikistan's sovereign rating, which was determined by this agency, it is assumed that gold prices will decrease from $2,900 per ounce in 2025 to $2,500 in 2026 and $2,100 in 2027.
In addition, the publication says that gold supplies may be reoriented due to uncertainty about US duties on Switzerland, where most of the Tajik gold is melted down.
S&P analysts point out that the republic's economy is heavily dependent on gold mining and sales.
Tajikistan's foreign economic position, according to the agency's experts, continues to improve due to the high level of inflows of remittances and favorable gold prices.
The publication emphasizes that the monetization of gold by the National Bank of Tajikistan has increased the republic's international reserves to a record level of $4.6 billion (30% of GDP) as of March 2025 (7.4 months of import coverage).
S&P experts note that through the sale of gold through the Ministry of Finance, the repayment of the country's external debt is ensured.
Earlier this month, the head of the NBT, Firdavs Tolibzoda, told reporters that the share of monetary gold in international reserves is at 20%.
According to him, the volume of the main metal in the gold and foreign exchange reserves is increasing through its acquisition in the republic itself and its conversion into monetary gold abroad.
Tolibzoda noted that "reputable foreign companies" are engaged in the conversion of Tajik gold into monetary gold.
Monetary gold is physical gold in the form of coins and bars or plates, refined from impurities and having a purity from 995 to 1000. The ingot metal must meet the requirements of the global Good Delivery standard.
According to the Statistical Agency of the Republic of Tajikistan, in 2024, Tajikistan exported about $350 million worth of precious metals, which accounted for 17.8% of the country's total exports.
A year earlier, the republic exported these products worth over $1.1 billion, which is about half (46.6%) of the country's total exports.
