A year ago, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan signed a State Border Agreement, which led to the reopening of the border and the full restoration of trade and economic ties. What has changed since then?
The agreement was signed on March 13, 2025, during the state visit of Tajikistan's President Emomali Rahmon to Kyrgyzstan. A key topic of discussions was the restoration of trade and economic cooperation. Both sides signed agreements on the development of industry, energy, and agriculture, opening new opportunities for growth.
“Our countries have significant potential for joint development. We agreed to expand economic cooperation and achieve mutual trade growth to $500 million in the coming years,” said the President of Tajikistan after the talks.
Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov emphasized that “creating favorable business conditions in both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will lead to the creation of new jobs, infrastructure development, and the strengthening of trade and economic ties.”
The joint statement from the presidents noted that economic cooperation between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan not only benefits both countries but also contributes to the overall development of the region. The signed agreements lay the foundation for further growth, and the strengthening of trade links and infrastructure opens new opportunities for entrepreneurs and investors.
The border of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan had been the scene of unrest repeatedly since the collapse of the former Soviet Union. Border talks between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan began in 2002. Unresolved border issues have led to tensions for the past 30 years. Tensions between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan had remained high until recently, owing to a border dispute, as well as other issues involving irrigation, smuggling, and illegal border crossings. This dispute led to clashes between the two countries. Kyrgyzstan unilaterally closed the border with Tajikistan in spring 2021 after an armed conflict along a disputed segment of the border left 36 Kyrgyz nationals, including two children.
Sharp growth in the bilateral trade
In 2025, the trade turnover between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan reached over $33.1 million, a significant increase compared to 2024. According to Tajikistan’s agency for statistics, a two-way trade between the countries grew 2.7 times over the last year, from $12.2 million in 2024. In 2025, Tajikistan exported goods worth more than $8.6 million to Kyrgyzstan, including table grapes, cotton products, and electricity.
Imports from Kyrgyzstan exceeded $24.5 million, with major goods including lignite (brown coal), oil and oil products, as well as pasta, bottles, flacons, and other products.
In 2020, trade turnover between the two countries stood at $37 million. However, the trade volume decreased to $11.6 million in 2023 due to the border closure, marking a more than threefold decline. For the past four years, the bilateral trade between the countries was maintained through third countries (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan).
Before the border closures, there were border markets where people from both countries could buy and sell goods. For example, residents of the two countries traded on Tuesdays in the Kyrgyz village of Arka in Batken region, and on Sundays in the village of Khistevarz in the Tajik Sughd province. After the border was reopened, authorities from both sides promised to resume trade at these points, but this has not happened yet.
Overall, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, both lacking significant oil and gas resources and developing at a similar economic level with close economic structures, mainly export raw materials and import finished goods. Therefore, trade turnover between the two countries has always been limited.
Transit trade
The suspension of transit cargo transportation through Kyrgyzstan had a significant impact on Tajikistan’s economy. Prior to the border closure, part of the goods from/to China and Kazakhstan — key trading partners of Tajikistan — were transported through Kyrgyzstan.
Since the signing of the border agreement, several border crossing points (BCPs) have been reopened. Specifically, on March 13, 2025, the “Kyzyl-Bel — Guliiston” and “Kayragach — Madaniyat” crossings, which had been closed for nearly four years, resumed operation.
The restoration of border crossings allowed a gradual return of some cargo flows to their previous routes. In July of last year, during a state visit to Tajikistan, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov stated that Kyrgyzstan is ready to help facilitate Tajik exports to the markets of the Eurasian Economic Union, acting as a strategic transit corridor.
Investment
Mutual investment between the two countries has historically been very low, even during warmer relations. This can be explained by the fact that both countries have limited investment opportunities and are direct competitors in attracting investments from wealthier countries.
Since 2022, there has been no recorded influx of investments between the two countries. Before that, Kyrgyz investment in Tajikistan was minimal. In 2021, Kyrgyz investments amounted to about $550,000, with $390,000 being direct investments.
By the end of 2021, Kyrgyzstan’s accumulated investments in Tajikistan’s economy reached over $2.2 million, with approximately $1.9 million being direct investments. There is no available data on Tajik investments in Kyrgyzstan.
What’s next?
Despite the noticeable growth in trade, economic relations between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan remain relatively limited. The current trade turnover is still much lower than the target countries aim to achieve in the coming years.
The signing of the State Border Agreement was an important political step that removed one of the major barriers to economic cooperation. However, for significant trade growth, other factors are needed — development of transport infrastructure, expansion of border trade, and the launch of joint economic projects.
Experts note that with a favorable political environment and the restoration of logistics routes, trade turnover between the two countries may gradually increase. However, to achieve the stated goal of $500 million, much deeper economic integration will be required.
