DUSHANBE, September 28, 2010, Asia-Plus — Rising remittance inflows, higher global prices for aluminum and cotton, and a growing agriculture sector supported Tajikistan’s growth in the first half of 2010, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says in a major new report.
“Remittances increased by 20% in the first six months of 2010. Industrial output grew by 12% mainly due to the price recovery of aluminum, the country’s main export. Agriculture, furthermore, demonstrated a robust growth of 9.2%,” says Joji Tokeshi, ADB”s Country Director for Tajikistan.
The Asian Development Outlook 2010 Update (ADO Update), released today, says that economic growth in Tajikistan in the first half of the year reached 7.4%, and outlook for the remainder of 2010 is cautiously optimistic. ADO Update projects the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) to expand 4.5% in 2010 and 5.5% in 2011, anticipating that global prices for aluminum and cotton as well as remittances will remain high.
Inflation in Tajikistan remained moderate at 5.3% in the first half of 2010. ADO Update forecasts that inflation will reach 8.0% in 2010, and 9.5% in 2011.
The report further says that exports demonstrated a significant increase of more than 35% year-on-year during the first half of 2010 due to the recovery of aluminum and cotton prices. Despite higher remittances, disruptions with rail cargo transit through Uzbekistan shrank imports by 6.1%. Trade disruption is expected to continue throughout year, which would narrow the country’s trade deficit. The current account deficit is projected at 7.8% of GDP in 2010, and 8.5% in 2011.
Asian Development Outlook and Asian Development Outlook Update are ADB’s flagship economic reports analyzing the economic conditions and prospects in Asia and the Pacific, and are issued in April and September, respectively.
ADB, based in Manila, is dedicated to reducing poverty in Asia and the Pacific through inclusive economic growth, environmentally sustainable growth, and regional integration. Established in 1966, it is owned by 67 members – 48 from the region. In 2009, it approved a total of $16.1 billion in financing operations through loans, grants, guarantees, a trade finance facilitation program, equity investments, and technical assistance projects. ADB also mobilized co-financing amounting to $3.2 billion.
