DUSHANBE, October 19, 2011, Asia-Plus — Visits of the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Tajikistan and Uzbekistan mean that the United States has serious problems and difficulties in Afghanistan, Tajik political scientist Rustam Haidarov said in an interview with Asia-Plus.
According to him, the United States needs understanding and support of countries bordering Afghanistan.
Tajik expert supposes that tactical goals and objectives of the United States in the region such as transit of non-military cargo to Afghanistan via the so-called “northern route” and the United States strategic tasks such as deployment of the U.S. military bases in Central Asia’s countries after their partial withdrawal from Afghanistan will be in the focus of discussions.
Haidarov considers that the United States has begun to play the Afghan card in Central Asia. “At present the United States, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are participating in this game. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan may both win and lose this game. Everything depends on how correctly political leaderships of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan will use the situation,” the expert stressed.
According to him, the United States has allegedly already been conducting negotiations with Uzbekistan on this subject. “The experience of interaction between the United States and Uzbekistan in the past shows that they will argue,” said Haidarov. “ In exchange for deployment of the U.S. troops in Uzbekistan, the Uzbek authorities may demand: firstly, the supply of modern armament for Uzbekistan’s armed forces; and secondly, the United States’ support for blocking construction of the Roghun hydroelectric power plant (HPP). The second issue is principally important for the Uzbek political leadership.”
He is sure that Tajikistan also needs support of the United States, especially for providing security. “Nobody now can predict further development of events in Afghanistan after withdrawal of the coalition troops from there. In any event, there will be no stability in Afghanistan in the coming thirty years, because this internationalized conflict and conflicts in the Middle East will continue.”
“A war has become a business, a kind of activity for major part of the Afghan population,” said Haidarov, “After the war against foreign military presence, Afghans will begin to fight against each other; Pashtuns will begin to annihilate all non-Pashtuns, especially the Tajiks.”
“Establishment of peace in Afghanistan is the problem of Afghans themselves and let them resolve this problem,” noted the expert, “Tajikistan must think about its own national interests: maintenance of territorial integrity; preservation of peace and stability in society; providing security of Tajik nationals; and achievement of energy independence. Dialogue of Tajikistan’s political leadership with the United States must be based on these goals and objectives.”
