DUSHANBE, December 28, 2015, Asia-Plus –
Radio Liberty’s Turkmen Service
, known locally as
Azatlyk
, has assembled the Majlis, a panel, to discuss events in Central Asia in 2015 and what those events might portend.
The Majlis has reportedly brought in people who follow events in Central Asia as closely as anyone in the world.
Azatlyk
Director Muhammad Tahir moderated the discussion. Participating from
RFE/RL’s Kyrgyz Service
, known locally as
Azattyk
, was Director Venera Djumataeva; from
RFE/RL”s Tajik Service
, known locally as
Radio Ozodi
, was
Ozodi
Director Sojida Djakhfarova; and from
RFE/RL”s Uzbek Service
, known locally as
Ozodlik
, was Senior Correspondent Sirojiddin Tolibov. US expert in Central Asia Bruce Pannier also sat in on behalf of
RFE/RL”s Kazakh Service
, known locally as
Azattyq
.
Mr.Pannie notes that the year 2015 was rough for Central Asia and 2016 is going to be a very eventful year in the region — and not in a good way.
The year that’s coming to a close saw a drastic economic downturn in Central Asia and an increase in security concerns as the situation in northern Afghanistan deteriorated and the threat of the Islamic State (IS) militant group grew in the minds of Central Asian government officials.
There were some important elections in Central Asia in 2015, both parliamentary and presidential.
Tajikistan conducted parliamentary elections on March 1 and brought to an end any hint of political pluralism. As Djakhfarova pointed out, after 18 years of a government that included members of genuine opposition parties, the 2015 parliamentary elections “deprived two major opposition parties from seats in the parliament.”
Before the end of 2015, one of those opposition parties — the Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan — would have its registration canceled by a court decision and later was declared to be an illegal extremist group.
Kyrgyzstan provided one of the bright moments of 2015 when it conducted its parliamentary elections on October 4. Those elections reportedly did have some shortcomings and the new deputies have yet to prove they can meet the high expectations the electorate has for them, but the campaigning process was, arguably, the best Central Asia has ever seen.
There were presidential elections also in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev and Uzbek President Islam Karimov, the only two leaders in the CIS who have ruled their countries since the first day of independence (and even before that), conducted early elections and received fresh mandates to lead their countries.
There was speculation that the two wanted new terms before the reality of the expected economic crisis in Central Asia really took hold.
Karimov was reelected on March 29 and Nazarbayev on April 26, both officially receiving more than 90 percent of the vote.
The economies in their countries, and the other Central Asian states, were already showing signs of severe strain, with several factors combining to the detriment of the region.
There were some states that had grown reliant on remittances from migrant laborers, mainly in Russia. The devaluation of the Russian ruble, caused by falling oil and gas prices on world markets and Western sanctions on Russia for the Kremlin’s role in fighting in eastern Ukraine, impacted millions of migrant laborers from Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan working in Russia.
Kazakhstan’s national currency — the tenge — started the year with an exchange rate of some 180 tenge to $1 but as the year drew to a close the rate was some 330 tenge to $1.
In Kazakhstan’s case the cause was more the falling price of oil, the country’s major export, coupled with the economic woes of two of its main trading partners — Russia and China.
The falling price of natural gas created similar problems in Turkmenistan, where for the first time in many years there were reports of layoffs in the gas sector and even a strike by gas workers in the eastern Lebap Province.
Added to economic troubles were problems south of the Central Asian borders, in Afghanistan. The provincial capital of Kunduz, not far from Tajikistan, briefly fell into the hands of Taliban and foreign militants in late September. Fighting farther west reached the Turkmen border in several places during the last few months of 2015.
And then there was the specter of the Islamic State (IS) militant group. Hundreds of Central Asians have gone to Syria and Iraq to join the world’s richest terrorist group. Most had been recruited in Russia, where they were working as migrant laborers. But some, including notably the head of Tajikistan’s Interior Ministry commando units, left from Central Asia to join IS.
Russian officials warned Central Asian governments about the growing threat from IS throughout 2015, but these officials were essentially preaching to the choir. The Central Asian governments needed little urging to initiate legislation and measures that simultaneously allowed them to neutralize potential domestic regime opponents, both religious and secular.
