An article “Is this the Start of Regional Cooperation in Central Asia?” by Bruce Pannier posted on Radio Liberty’s website on May 24 notes that it looks like the new president of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, is keeping at least one of his promises.
Recall, Mirziyoyev said one of his priorities would be better relations with neighboring Central Asian nations.
Mirziyoyev met with Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov in Turkmenistan on May 19-20, and among the many agreements they reached was one on Turkmen electricity exports to Kazakhstan and to Kyrgyzstan via Uzbekistan's territory.
That doesn't sound like much, but it reverses a nearly 15-year trend of decoupling in Central Asia, according to the article.
In the Soviet-era, a Central Asian unified grid was established, drawing on power sources such as oil in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, gas in Turkmenistan, hydropower from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and coal from all but Turkmenistan. All five then-Soviet republics were interconnected; so, for example, southern Kazakhstan received gas from Uzbekistan.
In 2003, “neutral” Turkmenistan withdrew from the grid. In 2009, Uzbekistan withdrew, causing severe power shortages in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Some believe that this was response to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan very publicly forging ahead with massive hydropower plant projects on the upper reaches of rivers that flowed into Uzbekistan.
It was only one aspect of a process that saw the five countries sever many of the road, rail, and air links that had connected them for decades before independence, and devote significant funds to building up infrastructure that avoided neighbors' territories.
For the last several years, Turkmenistan has wanted to sell electricity to Tajikistan, the latter being habitually short of power in the winter due to a reliance on hydropower, and the former having gas-fired electrical power stations that operate throughout the year.
Berdymuhammedov and Tajik President Emomali Rahmon have agreed to such a deal, but that power would be most easily transferred using lines that cross some 200 kilometers of Uzbekistan's territory.
Uzbek President Karimov was reportedly unwilling to agree to that, so the Turkmen-Tajik deal never moved forward.
Tajikistan was not mentioned in reports about Berdymuhammedov and Mirziyoyev's meeting in Turkmenistan. But judging by the chummy pictures of Mirziyoyev and Rahmon at the Arab Islamic American Summit in Riyadh on May 21, it probably won't be difficult now to reach a deal for the Turkmen-Tajik power transmission lines, the article says.
So Mirziyoyev's agreement on Turkmen electricity exports represents progress in regional integration, though admittedly, he might be simply removing obstacles he inherited from the previous administration.
It is not a bold new initiative for regional cooperation but it is a hopeful sign.
Mirziyoyev's trip to Awaza was the second trip to Turkmenistan in less than three months; his first state visit as Uzbekistan's president was to Turkmenistan on March 6-7. Mirziyoyev has also visited Kazakhstan twice — on March 22-23 and again on April 29.
While he was generally trying to improve Uzbekistan's relations with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, and hopefully find new markets particularly for Uzbekistan's agricultural products, Mirziyoyev was looking for supplies of oil from both countries.
Gasoline shortages have been a huge problem in Uzbekistan for many years. Uzbekistan's domestic oil production has fallen by more than 40 percent in the last 10 years, and its three operating refineries are currently functioning below capacity due to lack of oil.
According to the article, Mirziyoyev may well deserve credit for acting on his promise to improve ties with the neighbors. Six months into his tenure, Uzbekistan's relations with its neighboring states are reportedly already better than they were during the last 10 or 15 years under Karimov.
Most of the agreements Mirziyoyev has reached with his neighbors represent efforts to address short-term political necessities; there is not much so far that suggests long-term policy changes are coming.
The Turkmen electricity exports to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are therefore something of a litmus test, because Uzbekistan does not receive much (only transit fees) for its part in this arrangement, and it promises to be a long-term deal.
The article notes that allowing this electricity agreement to go through and operate unhindered would demonstrate an interest in regional cooperation that Tashkent has not shown in a long time.
