The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) on November 7 sharply raised growth forecasts on Tuesday for the 37 countries in which it operates, saying improving exports, a revival in investment and firmer commodity prices were supporting a broad upswing.
Average economic growth for the group, which ranges from Morocco to Mongolia, is now expected to hit 3.3 percent this year, compared to 2.4 percent the multilateral lender had forecast in May and 1.9 percent last year.
A total of 27 of the EBRD's 37 economies have seen growth pick up this year, the first time there has been such an upturn since 2010. The Bank said the overall 2017 forecast is the best since 2011.
Growth across the EBRD region is also expected to continue into 2018, but at a slightly more moderate pace of 3.0 percent.
Russia has now pulled out of recession after a cumulative contraction of 3 percent over the last two years.
The country is expected to see GDP growth of 1.8 and 1.7 percent in 2017 and 2018 respectively, though it could be more.
The increase in the oil price compared with 2016 has also helped other commodity exporters in Central Asia and Eastern Europe, and also the Caucasus countries that rely on Russia for remittance flows or as a destination for their exports.
Kazakhstan is expected to see GDP growth of 3.8 percent and 3.5 percent this year and 2018 respectively. Kyrgyzstan will see GDP growth of 4.4 percent in 2017 and 4.2 percent in 2018, Turkmenistan – 5.7 and 5.2 percent respectively.
In Central Asia, the highest GDP growth is expected to be seen in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Tajikistan is expected to see GDP growth of 6.5 and 5.0 percent in 2017 and 2018 respectively. In Uzbekistan, GDP is expected to rise 5.4 percent in 2017 and 6.2 percent in 2018.
