President Biden’s administration is trying to use the rapidly changing geopolitical situation in Central Asia to its advantage, Tajik political scientist Parviz Mullojanov told CABAR.asia in an interview. An important US motive is the desire to block the flow of sanctioned goods to Russia through Central Asia, he said commenting on the outcome of the first C5+1 summit.
Mullojanov notes that this meeting is important because it represents one of the major trends that has recently gained relevance – the direction toward closer relations with the West and the preservation of opportunities to pursue a multi-vector foreign policy.
Now, the geopolitical balance in the region has reportedly been upset – mainly because Russia is essentially up to its neck in the war in Ukraine. Most of its resources and attention are increasingly directed toward an ever-increasing confrontation with the West; as a result, the geopolitical balance that existed in the Central Asian region not so long ago, when several relatively equidistant players competed in the region, is being upset.
Now, China is gradually becoming the main external player in the region, de facto pushing Russia into a secondary role; in addition, other regional and global players are trying to fill the emerging geopolitical vacuum, thus creating an atmosphere of uncertainty for the Central Asian countries, Tajik political scientist noted.
The countries of the region are now seeking to rebalance the geopolitical situation in the region and maintain good relations with all major external players and partners.
In this sense, the summit in New York is another step in this direction for them. By strengthening relations with the West and the United States, the countries of the region thus avoid the danger of becoming overly dependent on one geopolitical partner, in this case China.
At the same time, on the whole, it was a rather ordinary meeting; contrary to some heightened expectations and overly optimistic forecasts voiced shortly before the summit, nothing breakthrough happened there.
Asked about the possibility of the weakening of Russia’s position in the region, Mullojanov said that in fact, the weakening of Russia’s position in the region is not so much the merit of Biden or anyone else, but of the Russian leadership itself. Moscow’s influence in the post-Soviet space has been sharply reduced because Russia has engaged in a long-term war of attrition in Ukraine and open confrontation with the West. “As a result, its financial and military resources are no longer sufficient to maintain its previous level of influence in the region and prevent other geopolitical players, primarily China and Turkey, from entering it,” the expert said.
He further noted that for the U.S., the former status quo, when Moscow could no longer and Beijing could not yet unambiguously dominate the region, would be most beneficial. According to him, the region of post-Soviet Central Asia itself is not so important to Washington; the U.S. and the West traditionally view it through the prism of their relations with Russia and China.
Asked whether US President Biden could be a more effective mediator in resolving the border dispute between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan than Russia, Mullojanov noted that it is unlikely that Dushanbe and Bishkek will choose the West as a mediator because it would clearly complicate their relations with Russia and China.
According to him, each country in the region has its own nuances in its relations with the US. What they have in common is a desire to maintain good relations with Russia, but not at the expense of worsening relations with the West. No one wants to be drawn into a destructive conflict with the international community following Moscow.
