For decades, water in Tajikistan was seen as something taken for granted. The Pamir glaciers and the country’s location at the headwaters of Central Asia’s major rivers created a sense of long-term security. Today, however, reality shows that these natural advantages are no longer sufficient.
Climate change, growing consumption, and systemic weaknesses in water governance are making the country increasingly vulnerable. Experts warn that without an urgent revision of water policy, the capitals of Central Asia could face a crisis comparable to the one already unfolding in Tehran.
Study warns: regional capitals on the brink of a water crisis
In late 2025, the foresight agency Nightingale Intelligence published a study presenting alarming projections. According to its analysts, Central Asian capitals could face a severe water crisis — similar to the situation in Tehran — unless urgent reforms in water supply systems are implemented.
The region’s water system largely depends on two rivers, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya, which are fed by glaciers in the Pamirs and the Tien Shan mountains. Since the 1960s, however, these glaciers have already lost a significant share of their mass, while river flow patterns have become increasingly unpredictable, raising long-term risks of water shortages.
The authors stress that the problem is not limited to shrinking water resources driven by climate change. Equally critical is the extremely inefficient use of water, both in agriculture and in urban areas.
What the “Tehran scenario” means
In an interview with Asia-Plus, one of the study’s authors, economist and international development expert Sobir Kurbanov explained the essence of what he calls the “Tehran scenario.”
According to Kurbanov, the “Tehran scenario,” similar to the so-called “Mexico City scenario,” refers to a sharp reduction in the supply of fresh water to urban distribution systems.
“This outcome is driven by a combination of factors: depletion of water sources and reduced inflow into reservoirs, irrational consumption, high losses, aging infrastructure, and rapid urbanization without adequate investment in water supply and treatment,” he said.
Cities lose water before it reaches consumers
Even if cities such as Tashkent, Bishkek, or Dushanbe do not yet face a formal water deficit, the combination of aging infrastructure and rising demand makes them particularly vulnerable to disruptions.
In Dushanbe, Kurbanov notes, many elements of the “Tehran scenario” are already visible, albeit on a smaller scale. The city is growing rapidly, water consumption is increasing, while infrastructure remains outdated and losses remain high — all of which can be seen as warning signs of a potential future crisis.
“The greatest danger for Tajikistan is not a hypothetical ‘evacuation of the capital,’ but a cascading effect, when a water crisis ceases to be merely an urban issue and simultaneously affects drinking water supply, irrigation, and electricity generation. In such cases, it quickly turns into a socio-economic and sometimes political crisis,” the expert emphasizes.
When the problem is not water, but governance
According to the study’s authors, technical losses and high water demand are merely symptoms of a deeper, systemic issue — weak water governance.
Much of Central Asia’s water distribution system is inherited from the Soviet era, designed for a stable climate and centralized planning. Under today’s conditions, this model is increasingly failing.
Water management agencies remain chronically underfunded, while tariffs often do not reflect the real cost of services. As a result, utilities lack the resources to invest in network modernization or even basic maintenance. The situation is further aggravated by the absence of comprehensive monitoring of water withdrawals and losses, making effective management nearly impossible.
As Sobir Kurbanov notes, a water crisis can emerge even without a formal reduction in water availability.
“Tajikistan may face a crisis not because water physically disappears, but because of how the system is managed today: high losses, weak accounting, no incentives for conservation, and chronic underinvestment in operation and maintenance. The lack of coordination between water-energy policy and chaotic urbanization is particularly dangerous,” the expert explains.
When cities expand faster than infrastructure and losses remain high, Kurbanov adds, systems collapse not due to absolute water scarcity, but because of governance failures.
Agriculture: where most of the water disappears
Weak governance is most evident in agriculture — the largest consumer of water in Central Asia. According to the study, the sector accounts for 80–90% of total water withdrawals.
In many areas, outdated gravity-fed irrigation systems with open canals are still in use, where substantial volumes of water are lost through seepage and evaporation. In some locations, up to 40% of water disappears before reaching the fields.
As a result, countries long considered water-secure are facing what researchers describe as “hidden scarcity.” Groundwater levels are falling, soil quality is deteriorating, salinization is increasing, and ecosystems are degrading.
While these processes are most visible in the Aral Sea basin, researchers warn that their impacts will eventually reach urban areas as well.
Water vulnerability as a driver of social instability
In Tajikistan, water vulnerability is felt most acutely in everyday life, particularly in rural areas, where any instability quickly affects incomes and living conditions.
“Any reduction in irrigation water immediately hits farmers’ incomes, access to water, and electricity supply. Given the country’s heavy reliance on agriculture and hydropower, such disruptions trigger a chain reaction,” Kurbanov notes.
At the same time, Tajikistan possesses a strategic advantage that has not yet been fully realized — its location at the headwaters of the region’s major river basins.
“This gives Tajikistan the potential to become a leader in regional water governance, coordinating river and reservoir regimes and building a balanced ‘water–energy–irrigation’ system. Such a model could benefit both the country itself and its neighbors,” the expert says.
How water scarcity is emptying villages
One of the study’s most alarming conclusions is that water scarcity is gradually reshaping rural life. Falling crop yields and declining incomes are pushing people to leave — first seasonally, then permanently.
This scenario is particularly relevant for Tajikistan, where a large share of the rural population depends directly on water through household plots, orchards, small-scale farming, and seasonal agricultural work.
Outmigration rarely happens overnight. Instead, it takes the form of “quiet migration” — first from villages to cities, and later abroad. As water conditions deteriorate further, pressure on cities with already overstretched water systems is expected to intensify.
Similar trends are already being observed in several rural regions of Tajikistan.
When water also means electricity
Water stress in Tajikistan is directly linked to the energy sector. More than 80% of the country’s electricity is generated by hydropower plants, meaning that any fluctuations in river flows immediately affect electricity supply.
As climate change reduces snow reserves in the mountains, reliance on hydropower alone is becoming increasingly risky — particularly without the development of alternative energy sources and energy-efficiency programs.
“Any reduction in inflows to rivers and reservoirs immediately hits electricity generation. We are already seeing how low-snow winters and reduced water levels lead to power supply restrictions. In practice, authorities are forced to ‘save water’ in reservoirs in order to keep hydropower plants operating,” Sobir Kurbanov explains.
According to him, climate stress in Tajikistan simultaneously affects several critical sectors.
“Water, electricity, irrigation, and urban water supply all rest on the same hydrological foundation. This is why climate stress impacts them at the same time, amplifying the overall effect,” he says.
The Qosh Tepa Canal: a new risk factor
Another major concern highlighted by experts is Afghanistan’s construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal, designed to divert water from the Amu Darya to irrigate northern regions of the country.
Analysts estimate that once operational, the canal could divert between 6 and 10 cubic kilometers of water annually — up to one-third of the Amu Darya’s current flow. The effects of this diversion are already being felt in neighboring regions that depend on the river.
This development heightens geopolitical tensions and increases the risk of conflicts among countries within the Amu Darya basin.
“Uzbekistan may be the most vulnerable in this situation, as its irrigation systems rely heavily on Amu Darya water. Any major new withdrawals upstream significantly increase the risk of shortages downstream,” Kurbanov notes.
For Tajikistan, he adds, the risks are less about absolute volumes and more about political and systemic consequences.
“The likelihood of transboundary disputes over water allocation is increasing, especially during dry years. Such incidents have already occurred along the Tajik–Afghan border, and the emergence of a new active player in the Amu Darya basin only reinforces the need for continuous dialogue, transparent data, and agreed rules,” the expert says.
What comes next: can the ‘hour X’ be avoided?
As the authors of the study emphasize, the “Tehran scenario” is not inevitable — it is the result of prolonged inaction. Central Asian countries still have the opportunity to avoid this outcome if they move from broad statements to concrete measures.
According to Kurbanov, the coming years will be decisive for Tajikistan. Priority must be given to restoring order in urban water supply and irrigation systems, reducing losses, and launching systematic infrastructure modernization.
Equally important is a shift in agricultural policy, supporting farmers in transitioning to more water-efficient irrigation methods. The economic dimension of water — tariffs, user responsibilities, and rights — also requires urgent attention.
“Without clear and fair rules, modernization will remain out of reach for most farms and utility systems,” the expert warns.
Among the most critical mistakes, he lists managing water systems “blindly” without data or proper accounting, encouraging chaotic urban expansion without infrastructure investment, delaying tariff and financial reforms of water utilities, and neglecting regional water diplomacy.
“In such a scenario, every dry year will turn into a political crisis,” Kurbanov concludes.
The preparation of this material was made possible by the Communicating Climate in Central Asia project, implemented with financial support from the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development.
