DUSHANBE, December 19, 2014, Asia-Plus — The Russian ruble has collapsed, but the effects are not only being felt in Russia; they are also being felt in Tajikistan, which one of the remittance-dependent countries.
An article “Migrants Take Hit from Ruble”s Freefall” posted on Radio Liberty’s website on December 18 notes that young Tajik migrant worker Saadi Solehov was recently forced to shutter the stall at a southwestern Moscow market where he peddled clothing for the past four years — the fall of the ruble was too much for the young Tajik”s business to take.
“My income is in rubles but have to send home dollars,” the 24-year-old Solehov says. “I would earn 30,000 rubles monthly, at best — roughly $1,000. After paying for my food and rent, I was regularly sending home $400 until September.”
That”s about the time the ruble, which had been slowly depreciating throughout the year, entered an increasingly sharp fall.
The article says the Russian currency had begun the year at a rate of about 33 to the dollar, but as the effects of international sanctions imposed over the Ukraine crisis began to emerge it neared 40 by the end of September, hit 50 in November, and plummeted to an all-time low of nearly 80 on December 16, before recovering to about 60.
For Solehov, it means his family of 12 — which depends on the remittances he sends home to Tajikistan every month — is suffering greatly. But they are far from alone. Like Solehov, millions of migrants across Central Asia and Europe who depend on Russia for their livelihoods are feeling the pinch as well.
Russia is one of the world”s largest migrant destinations, with 1.1 million legally registered to work there (according to Russia”s Federal Migrations Service) and an estimated 3.5 million more illegally.
Working in construction, manufacturing, and agriculture, they send billions of dollars in remittances to their home countries, many of which depend on the inflow to buttress their economies.
Among the Central Asian nations — Russia”s largest source of migrants — Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are first and second, respectively, on the World Bank”s list of remittance-dependent countries.
But if migrants and their families are anxious to see the end of a bad fiscal year, they shouldn”t expect better fortunes in 2015, according to analysts.
According to the article, Firouz Saidov, a Dushanbe-based independent analyst, predicts that Tajikistan will feel the real impact of the ruble”s fall next year. “The ruble”s serious decline began around September and October, which roughly is the end of the labor-migration season,” Saidov explains. “Most of the migrants returned home by November and, as usual, will spend their money until the beginning of the next season, in April.”
When the money runs out, the many domestic business and jobs that depend on the money made in Russia — restaurants, bazaars, etc. — will take a hit. “As people”s purchasing power drops, these places will be out of business, too,” Saidov says.
