DUSHANBE, July 7, 2011, Asia-Plus –Withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan may lead to civil war in the country or at least the Taliban coming to power, Tajik political scientist Parviz Mullojonov said in an interview with Asia-Plus.
“Anyway, both instability in Afghanistan and Taliban’s accession to power will pose threat to security of Central Asia’s nations,” Mullojonov noted.
According to him, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is currently not yet ready to protect the region against extremist threat emanating from Afghanistan.
“Any collective forces that would be able to efficiently influence the situation have not yet been formed,” the expert said, stressing that only the Russian military subunits are efficient in this regional security organization.
Mullojonov considers that to provide security of its territory Tajikistan must cooperate both with NATO and CSTO, because NATO has real force in Afghanistan, while CSTO has real levers of influence in the Central Asian region in the person of Russia.
In the meantime, Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s Permanent Representative to NATO, stated recently that NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan would pose threat to security of the Central Asian countries and would become “the moment of truth” for CSTO.
“It is a big problem and a big challenge for us. If they withdraw from Afghanistan, it will be the moment of truth for CSTO. Therefore, Russia is taking efforts to fit its CSTO allies out for addressing rising extremist threat on their own,” Russia’s RIA Novosti new agency cited Rogozin as saying.
According to him, the NATO forces are currently drawing off attention of certain extremist forces, so-called dogs of war, not only of Afghanistan but of the whole region. If NATO withdraws its forces from Afghanistan, these dogs of war will lose interest in Afghanistan and may display activity in the whole Central Asia. “I think the United States will try to find an option under which it could to remain there, even if in a form of small group, under the pretext of maintaining stability,” Rogozin noted.
