DUSHANBE, July 27, 2013, Asia-Plus – Ms. Hilary Kramer, one of Wall Street’s most successful equity analysts and investment managers, notes in her article “Fostering Peace through Economic Development” that was posted on the
Forbes
website on July 23 that “Tajikistan being over 90% mountainous has, by far, the most water of any other country in Central Asia. But for the most part, this richest of world resources is untapped, with Tajikistan only utilizing 5% of its hydropower potential. The water is there, but the infrastructure is not.”
According to her, at present around 70% of Tajiks experience energy shortages for at least part of the year that makes it difficult for families to cook and heat their homes and for children to study at night, and with limited work possibilities, 1.5 million Tajik men migrate to Russia every year to find work, sending money back home to their families.
The article says that many industrial enterprises in Tajikistan are also idle for 6 to 7 months of the year due to the energy crisis, thereby undermining the government’s efforts to reduce poverty, create permanent jobs and improve the living standards of the population
Ms. Kramer considers that for Tajik President, Emomali Rahmon, there is one very obvious, very clear way forward — completion of the Roghun Dam Project.
The article says that when Tajikistan’s plan realized, the country would finally have previously unimagined opportunities for development on many fronts — first and most in the energy sector, then subsequently in infrastructure development, and throughout the project via development of Tajikistan’s human capital.
The Roghun Dam will provide enough energy for Tajikistan, northern Afghanistan, northern Pakistan and various countries in Central Asia that opt to benefit.
Ms. Kramer stressed that with as much as 85% of electricity in other Central Asian countries being produced in thermal power plants — a major source of carbon emissions – the Roghun Dam is an attractive proposition for environmentalists, not least because it can provide clean energy for a number of countries in the region, including Afghanistan and Pakistan.
“The biggest critic of the Roghun Dam Project is Uzbekistan. Under Soviet rule, the Uzbek economy was purposefully centered around cotton production – a highly water-intensive enterprise. In response to Uzbek criticisms, the Government of Tajikistan requested that the World Bank conduct feasibility studies on the dam. It is anticipated that these studies will be released before the end of 2013,” the article says.
“The Tajiks are proud partners with the United States in the global war on terror. They see providing ample electricity to towns and villages as a chief ‘weapon’ in that war, as is evidenced by their leading role in advancing the Millennium Development Goals – a major priority of the United Nations.
“Ample electricity, more than anything else, will promote stability. And, stability, more than anything else, will promote peace. Consequently, peace, more than anything else, will promote limitless opportunities for women and children, and for the men who will have more opportunities to work close to home instead of migrating far afield to provide for their families.
“There are those in the region who remain opposed to the project, but Tajikistan continues to show a readiness for constructive dialogue and cooperation with all parties. For this reason, President Rahmon has invited the United Nations, government officials from around the world, civil society groups and academic experts to Tajikistan for a High Level International Conference on Water Cooperation to be held in Dushanbe on August 20-22, 2013. Representatives from around the world, and especially from Central Asia, are scheduled to attend.”
Meanwhile, an article published in
The Economist
on July 25 notes “On a bluff above the Vakhsh River, Roghun’s ramshackle square boasts at least four billboards featuring Tajik President, Emomali Rahmon, and his aphorisms, such as “Roghun is the bright future of Tajikistan.”
The article notes that dirt-poor but water-rich, Tajikistan hopes to sell electricity to Afghanistan and South Asia. “In theory, the dam, 335 meters high, could save the country from poverty and isolation, doubling Tajikistan’s power-generating capacity. But the project seems quixotic, if not outright delusional: it would cost up to $6 billion (GDP in 2012 was about $7.6 billion); Uzbekistan, a big neighbor, is fiercely opposed; and the investment climate is clouded by corruption.”
The article also says that Mr. Rahmon deals in superlatives. “He has built the world’s tallest flagpole and is soon to open its biggest teahouse. Yet teachers can go unpaid for months. In early 2010 he forced most Tajiks to supply cash for Roghun. Teachers earning $30-40 a month had to pay half their salaries for Roghun shares, and students had to buy them in order to sit exams.”
The article says Tajikistan cannot build Roghun alone. “A brain drain has left it woefully ill-equipped to handle such a project. One of Roghun’s chief engineers, asked to confirm a few statistics, consults Wikipedia. The only realistic patrons for the project are outsiders who might be able to stomach the corruption, such as Russia or China. But neither wants to anger Uzbekistan, Central Asia’s most populous country, with its largest army. If only Mr. Rahmon could settle for something less than the tallest. Then he could keep the lights on in winter.”
