DUSHANBE, July 13, 2014, Asia-Plus — The latest
Agricultural Outlook
produced by the OECD and FAO notes that the recent fall in prices of major crops will continue over the next two years before stabilizing at levels above the pre-2008 period.
Demand for agricultural products is expected to remain firm while expanding at lower rates than in the past decade. Cereals are still at the core of what people eat, but diets are becoming higher in protein, fats and sugar in many parts of the world, as incomes rise and urbanization increases.
The OECD-FAO
Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023
says such changes, combined with a growing global population, will require substantial expansion of production over the coming decade. Led by Asia and Latin America, developing regions will account for more than 75percent of additional agricultural output over the next decade.
In a special focus on India, the
Outlook
projects sustained food production and consumption growth, led by value-added sectors like dairy production and aquaculture. Investment in production technology and infrastructure together with subsidies in a range of areas have contributed to strong output expansion over the past decade, the report says, and pressure on resources is expected to reduce production growth rates over the coming years.
The
Agricultural Outlook
says global cereal production is projected to be 15 percent higher by 2023 than in the 2011-13 period. The fastest production growth is expected to be oilseeds, at 26 percent over the next 10 years. The expansion of coarse grain and oilseed production will be driven by strong demand for biofuels, particularly in developed countries, and growing feed requirements in developing regions.
The expansion of food crop production will be more moderate over the coming decade, the report says, with wheat output growing by around 12 percent and rice by 14 percent, well below the growth rates of the previous decade. Sugar production is expected to increase by 20 percent over the coming decade, concentrated mainly in developing countries.
The
Agricultural Outlook
projects developments in a broad range of commodities over the coming decade.
World prices of major grains will ease early in the outlook period, boosting world trade. Stocks are projected to rise with rice inventories in Asia reaching record high levels.
The global share of cropland planted to oilseeds continues to increase albeit at a slower rate than in recent years as growing demand for vegetable oils pushes prices up.
After weakening in late 2013, sugar prices will recover, driven by strong global demand. Exports from Brazil, the world”s dominant sugar exporter, will be influenced by the ethanol market.
Meat prices are expected to remain above the average levels of the previous decade, when adjusted for inflation. Beef prices are seen rising to record levels. Poultry should overtake pork to become the most consumed meat product over the next 10 years.
As far as the cotton is concerned, the expected release of accumulated global stocks will boost consumption, helped by lower prices which should then recover by 2023.
