DUSHANBE, October 13, 2010, Asia-Plus — The majority of Central Asia’s countries depend on wheat imports to a moderate extent, and therefore, recent rise in the international wheat prices will have limited impact on import prices in the region, Mr. David Owen, Senior Advisor in the International Monetary Fund (IMF)”s Middle East and Central Asia Department, said in an interview with Russia’s Vremya Novostey.
According to him, Tajikistan is an exception in the region. Tajikistan’s grain import expenses may increase by more than 0.55 of GDP during the remaining part of 2010, Mr. Owen said, according to Vremya Novostey.
The IMF representative noted that that Central Asia’s countries did not widely use food and wheat subsidies, and therefore, public expenses were not expected to increase because of rise in wheat prices. “At the same time, Kyrgyzstan has responded to wheat price hike by decreasing import duties that will lead to decrease in public incomes,” Mr. Owen noted.
In the meantime, Tajik experts say flour imports constitute 54.5 percent of Tajikistan’s flour market volumes and flour prices in domestic market depend on prices in flour exporting countries. Kazakhstan provides the bulk of Tajikistan’s flour imports and the August rise in wheat prices in Kazakhstan has led to increase in flour prices in Tajikistan.
According to the statistical data from the Customs Service under the Government of Tajikistan, an average price of one ton of imported wheat flour increased from US$220 in July to US$264 in August (20-percent rise).
Specialists from the Antimonopoly Agency say that along with objective reasons there are also frequent cases of unreasonable overstating of prices by entrepreneurs that also lead to price volatility.
The price for a 50-kilogram sack of Kazakh superior quality wheat flour at local bazaars fluctuates from 115 to 130 somoni, a 22.5-percetn rise compared to August. The price for a 50-kilogram sack of domestic has risen 33.3 percent since August to 105-115 somoni.
According to the state unitary enterprise, Ghalla (grain products), 262,000 tons of wheat and 219,200 tons of wheat flour have been delivered to the country over the first eight months of this year.
As of September 20, Tajik farmers produced 516,000 tons of wheat and specialists from the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade (MEDT) expect local farming units to produce a total of 917,000 tons of cereals this year. Tajikistan’s annual requirements in cereals are now 1.429 million tons.
